DRAM 涨价潮下迎翻倍行情,美光重现 1993 年高光？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in DRAM prices, combined with Micron's (MU) optimistic forecast of a 25% increase in bit shipments, is creating the strongest supply-demand environment for the company's memory business since 1993 [1][2]. Group 1: Bit Shipment Forecast - Micron has raised its bit shipment growth forecast for the calendar year 2025 from "high single digits" to "low double digits" [3]. - The management also anticipates a bit shipment increase of approximately 20% for the calendar year 2026, indicating a strong performance outlook [4][5]. - The 20% growth expectation for bit shipments is one of the strongest performance indicators Micron has provided in recent years [5]. Group 2: DRAM Price Trends - The latest data from TrendForce indicates that DRAM prices are experiencing a significant surge, with mainstream DRAM product prices increasing over fourfold from August to November of last year [8]. - The current memory inventory is at "extremely low levels," leading to a "structural shortage" in the DRAM market, which is a favorable environment for Micron [8][11]. - This situation is reminiscent of the memory chip supply shortages in 1993, driven by the initial demand surge from the internet investment boom [11]. Group 3: Market Environment and Valuation - Analysts believe that the current operating environment for Micron, characterized by inelastic pricing, will lead to strong performance due to the dual benefits of rising prices and high bit shipment growth [14][16]. - Recent reports from IDC, TrendForce, and S&P Global suggest that DRAM prices will continue to rise at least through the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 [14]. - The forward price-to-book ratio for Micron is approximately 4 times, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 5 times for the fiscal year 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation given the expected near doubling of revenue [16].