Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股IPO·2026-01-06 16:04Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining market position of Nvidia (NVDA.US) as it faces increasing competition and concerns over the sustainability of AI spending, despite its historical growth and strong demand for its products [1][3][5]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Performance - Since reaching an all-time high on October 29, Nvidia's stock has dropped by 9.1%, underperforming the S&P 500 index, raising investor concerns about the sustainability of AI spending and Nvidia's market dominance [3][5]. - Nvidia's stock price has increased over 1300% since the end of 2022, with its market capitalization surpassing $5 trillion, but it has since lost $460 billion in market value, reducing its three-year cumulative growth to nearly 1200% [3][5]. - Despite the recent downturn, Nvidia's stock remains in high demand, with 76 out of 82 analysts giving it a buy rating, and an average target price suggesting a potential 37% upside in the next 12 months [7][8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia, holding over 90% of the AI chip market, faces unprecedented competition from rivals like AMD (AMD.US) and major clients such as Google (GOOGL.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US), who are developing their own chips to reduce costs [5][9]. - AMD is expected to see a 60% increase in its data center business revenue by 2026, reaching nearly $260 billion, indicating a significant threat to Nvidia's market share [8][9]. - The demand for customized chips is rising, with companies like Google and Meta exploring alternatives to Nvidia's high-cost chips, which can exceed $30,000 each [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - Nvidia's gross margin is projected to decline from 75% to 71.2% in the 2026 fiscal year due to increased costs from the Blackwell chip series, with expectations to recover to around 75% in the 2027 fiscal year [11][12]. - The current valuation of Nvidia is relatively low at a forward P/E ratio of 25, which is only higher than Meta among the "Seven Giants," and lower than over a quarter of S&P 500 constituents [14]. - Analysts suggest that the current market valuation reflects a pessimistic outlook on the industry cycle and AI deployment, presenting a potential investment opportunity [14].