HYPC(SZ:000703) 光大证券研究·2026-01-06 23:04Core Viewpoint - The company has officially launched the construction of the Brunei Refinery Phase II project, aiming for completion by the end of 2028, which is expected to enhance its growth potential in the future [4][5]. Group 1: Project Development - The subsidiary Hengyi Industries (Brunei) Co., Ltd. has signed the Phase II Implementation Agreement and received tax incentives from the Brunei government, along with financing commitments from Brunei Islamic Bank and shareholder loan promises [5]. - The design capacity of the Brunei Refinery Phase II project has been optimized to 12 million tons per year, focusing on producing diesel, PX, benzene, polypropylene, and other high-value refined oil and chemical products [5]. - Upon completion, the total capacity of the Brunei refinery will reach 20 million tons per year, creating synergies with the first phase of the project and enhancing the company's market share and integrated supply chain advantages [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Southeast Asian refined oil supply-demand gap is expected to continue expanding, with the IMF projecting a GDP growth of 4.5% for the ASEAN region in 2025, and specific countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam showing even higher growth rates [6]. - From 2020 to 2023, over 30 million tons of refining capacity have exited the Southeast Asian and Australian markets due to public health events and energy transition, leading to an anticipated supply-demand gap of 68 million tons by 2026 [6]. - Limited new refining capacity in Southeast Asia, combined with existing supply shortages, suggests that the Brunei Refinery project is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market tightness [6].