英伟达（NVDA）：AI 领域大手笔投资敲响警钟

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector presents significant market opportunities, with investors expecting substantial corporate investments for future positioning. However, NVIDIA is currently utilizing most of its cash for acquisitions and investments, which analysts view as a risk warning signal. Despite this, the investment sentiment towards NVIDIA remains extremely bullish, although the market must be cautious about the potential pitfalls of aggressive cash utilization for investments [1]. Group 1: Acquisition and Investment Activities - NVIDIA announced a major acquisition of Groq, a virtual technology startup, for $20 billion, acquiring chip technology rights and core team assets. Groq's CEO is a key developer of Google's TPU, and the company has made significant advancements in inference chip technology [3][6]. - In a short span, NVIDIA has engaged in transactions totaling $28 billion, including a $5 billion investment in Intel and potential negotiations to acquire AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion. In 2025 alone, NVIDIA has committed over $120 billion in investments with major deals, including a $100 billion collaboration with OpenAI [6][9]. - Overall, NVIDIA's total committed funds for investments and acquisitions have exceeded $145 billion, highlighting the aggressive nature of its financial commitments despite projected revenues of approximately $213 billion for fiscal year 2026 [6][9]. Group 2: Financial Position and Cash Flow Concerns - As of the end of the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, NVIDIA's cash reserves reached $61 billion, a significant increase from $43 billion year-over-year. However, with a debt level of around $8.5 billion, the net cash position stands at $52.5 billion [9]. - Over the past four quarters, NVIDIA generated approximately $83 billion in operating cash flow, with capital expenditures of about $5 billion and $42 billion spent on stock buybacks and related tax expenses. Yet, only $1.4 billion has been spent on acquisitions, indicating a large amount of committed investment funds yet to be disbursed [9][10]. - The acquisition of Groq will directly consume $20 billion in cash, while the collaboration with OpenAI involves a commitment of $10 billion, with further investments expected from the second half of 2026 [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Market Outlook - Despite concerns regarding aggressive investment strategies, the bullish sentiment towards NVIDIA remains intact, supported by the ongoing growth narrative in the AI chip industry. The market anticipates that the AI chip market could exceed $1 trillion by 2028, with NVIDIA's revenue projected to surpass $400 billion by fiscal year 2028 [13][14]. - NVIDIA's forward price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 25 times, with analysts predicting earnings growth exceeding 50% over the next two fiscal years, making the current valuation attractive [13]. - However, the aggressive investment strategy has begun to weigh on stock prices, with the Groq acquisition revealing vulnerabilities in NVIDIA's inference chip market. Concerns also arise regarding the financial health of OpenAI, given the substantial investment [14][16].