Apple(US:AAPL) 硬AI·2026-01-07 15:35Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a "cost storm" driven by soaring memory prices is reshaping the hardware industry, with most OEMs expected to raise prices significantly in the first half of 2026, potentially leading to a decline in shipments of Android phones and Windows PCs throughout the year [2][6][7] - Morgan Stanley predicts that DRAM contract prices will rise by 40-70% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, while NAND prices are expected to increase by 30-35%, far exceeding previous expectations [6][7] - Apple has locked in favorable memory prices and plans to maintain its product pricing, which is expected to help it gain market share for iPhones and Macs in 2026 [3][9] Group 2 - The shortage of hard disk drives (HDD) is worsening, with a projected supply gap of 200EB over the next 12 months, up from a previous estimate of 100-150EB [4][12] - Major cloud service providers are resorting to temporary measures, such as using enterprise-grade solid-state drives (eSSD), to partially meet storage demands, although eSSD is less efficient than HDD from a total cost of ownership perspective [13][14] - HDD manufacturers are reluctant to expand total production capacity but are reallocating capacity from consumer-grade applications to cloud and nearline storage to meet growing demand [16] Group 3 - OEMs like Dell and HP are expected to initiate large-scale layoffs to protect operating profit margins due to rising cost pressures, similar to the memory supercycle of 2017-2018 [19] - PC OEMs are reducing bill of materials costs by replacing 512GB storage configurations with 256GB options while maintaining entry-level pricing through cost-sharing with component suppliers [20] - The demand for AI servers is strong but profit margins remain low, with ongoing price competition among major OEMs like Dell, HPE, and Supermicro [22]