“短缺终将导致过剩”！a16z安德森2026年展望：AI芯片将迎来产能爆发与价格崩塌

Core Insights - AI represents a technological revolution larger than the internet, comparable to electricity and microprocessors, and is still in its early stages [2][3][11] - The cost of AI is decreasing at a rate faster than Moore's Law, leading to explosive demand growth [4][41] - Historical patterns suggest that shortages in GPU and data center capacity will eventually lead to oversupply, further driving down AI costs [5][12][41] Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - The future AI market structure will resemble the computer industry, with a few "god-level models" at the top and numerous low-cost "small models" proliferating at the edges [6][19] - The competition between the US and China is intensifying, with Chinese companies like DeepSeek and Kimi making significant strides in open-source strategies and chip development [6][15][59] - AI applications are shifting from "pay-per-token" models to "value-based pricing," allowing startups to integrate and build their own models rather than merely acting as wrappers [7][17] Group 2: Public Perception and Regulatory Landscape - Public sentiment towards AI is mixed, with fears of job displacement coexisting with rapid adoption of AI technologies [8] - The EU's regulatory approach, focusing on leading in regulation rather than innovation, is hindering local AI development [8][60] - The US regulatory environment is shifting towards supporting innovation, with less interest in imposing strict regulations that could hinder competitiveness against China [14][64] Group 3: Economic Implications - The rapid decline in AI input costs is expected to create significant demand elasticity, leading to unprecedented growth in AI applications [41][42] - The economic landscape for AI companies is promising, with many experiencing unprecedented revenue growth as they effectively monetize their offerings [32][39] - The ongoing construction of data centers and GPU production is projected to lead to a significant reduction in AI operational costs over the next decade [41][50]