4680电池的大饼，马斯克不想画了

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's ambitious plans for the 4680 battery have faced significant setbacks, leading to a drastic reduction in supply contracts and raising concerns about the viability of its electric vehicle models, particularly the Cybertruck [5][6][10]. Group 1: Tesla's 4680 Battery Challenges - The contract value between Tesla and L&F for high-nickel cathode materials plummeted from $2.9 billion to $7386, indicating a severe reduction in expected orders and signaling potential project failure [5]. - The 4680 battery, initially aimed at improving energy density and reducing costs, has not met performance expectations, particularly in the first generation, leading to production issues with the Model Y [9][13]. - The second generation of the 4680 battery has made some progress, but challenges remain in achieving the desired silicon content in the anode and the implementation of dry electrode technology [22][23]. Group 2: Cybertruck's Market Performance - The Cybertruck has not met sales expectations, with total deliveries hovering around 50,000 units, far from Elon Musk's target of 250,000 units annually [10][12]. - The pricing and range discrepancies between the promised and actual specifications of the Cybertruck have contributed to its commercial failure [10][12]. - Internal transactions, such as SpaceX purchasing unsold Cybertrucks, highlight the struggles Tesla faces in moving this model off the lot [10]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Tesla - Tesla's overall vehicle sales declined by 8.6% in 2025, marking a stagnation in its automotive business amid rising competition and market changes [23]. - The focus of Elon Musk appears to be shifting away from automotive to other ventures, such as AI and robotics, raising questions about the future importance of the 4680 battery project [23][28].