一年一代逼死客户！英伟达 Rubin 登场，AI 资本开支泡沫破裂倒计时

Core Viewpoint - Analysts maintain a "sell" rating on Nvidia (NVDA) due to concerns over slowing growth and high valuation, despite a recent recovery in growth as indicated by the latest quarterly earnings report [1][2]. Group 1: Growth and Valuation Concerns - Nvidia's stock price has remained stagnant since August, indicating a potential peak [1]. - The analyst's bearish outlook extends beyond just "slowing growth + high valuation" leading to valuation compression [2]. Group 2: AI Industry Bubble Concerns - The AI sector's capital expenditures are unlikely to generate profits, suggesting it is in a bubble that could burst if spending growth slows [5]. - Michael Burry's short position on Nvidia has drawn attention to the potential risks in the AI industry [5]. - Burry argues that large cloud service providers are artificially inflating profit levels by extending the depreciation period of AI chips [5]. Group 3: Product Lifecycle and Market Dynamics - Nvidia's new chips follow an annual iteration cycle, similar to Apple's iPhone strategy, which is crucial for meeting revenue growth expectations [5]. - The depreciation period set by cloud service providers for AI chips (5-6 years) exceeds their actual lifespan, leading to potential write-downs when new chips are released [5][6]. - The recent launch of Nvidia's third-generation AI platform, Rubin, has rendered the previous Blackwell platform nearly obsolete [7][8]. Group 4: Financial Implications and Credit Risks - The introduction of the Rubin platform, which significantly reduces inference token costs and improves efficiency, raises concerns about the financial health of cloud service providers [9][11]. - Many cloud service providers are now relying on debt issuance to fund AI capital expenditures, indicating a shift towards a credit crisis in the AI sector [11][12]. - Companies with weak balance sheets, such as CoreWeave and Oracle, are experiencing rising credit default swap spreads, indicating increased default risk [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Trends - The upcoming CES in 2027 raises questions about Nvidia's next product and whether it will be a disruptive innovation [12]. - If Nvidia cannot maintain its annual iteration pace, the implied growth expectations in its valuation may not be met, leading to a potential stock price drop [13]. - The AI industry's capital expenditures are substantial, and Nvidia holds a near-monopoly in the AI accelerator market, complicating the competitive landscape [13][14]. - The potential for significant growth in the application of agentic AI by 2026 is a key trend to monitor, as is the ability of AI application companies to achieve profitability [14].