Apple(US:AAPL) 美股研究社·2026-01-08 11:27Core Viewpoint - For Apple (AAPL) shareholders, 2025 is not expected to be a fruitful year, with stock price increases of over 9% falling short compared to most industry peers. However, 2026 may mark a pivotal point in the company's history with significant changes on the horizon [1]. Product Launches - In 2026, Apple is expected to launch over ten new products across various business segments. Devices like the MacBook Pro and entry-level iPad are likely to see only routine annual or biennial hardware upgrades. The anticipated iPhone Fold, Apple's first foldable smartphone, is expected to debut in 2026, with a screen size of approximately 7.6 inches and a price tag starting at $2,000, potentially reaching $2,500 [2]. iPhone Release Strategy - A major focus for 2026 will be the timing of iPhone releases. Apple is expected to adopt a staggered release schedule, with the iPhone Pro series and the new iPhone Fold launching in the fall, while more budget-friendly models will be delayed until spring 2027. This strategy aims to smooth revenue curves and improve supply chain management [3][4][6]. Revenue Estimates - Market predictions indicate a nearly 50% revenue gap between the June and December quarters of 2026. For instance, the revenue estimate for FQ1 2026 (December 2025) is projected at $138.20 billion, reflecting an 11.18% year-over-year growth, while FQ3 2026 (June 2026) is estimated at $99.41 billion, with a 5.72% growth [7][8]. Valuation Concerns - If Apple finalizes the staggered release strategy, Wall Street may need to adjust earnings expectations. The revenue impact from the absence of entry-level iPhones in fall 2026 could be significant, with billions potentially deferred to the following year. As of the last closing, Apple's stock price corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of slightly over 31 times for 2026, representing a 14.6% premium compared to peers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and META [9][11]. Analyst Sentiment - Current market sentiment among analysts is generally optimistic, with 29 out of 49 analysts rating Apple as a "buy," 16 as "hold," and only 4 as "sell." While 2026 is not expected to bring major changes to most products, the introduction of the foldable iPhone and the staggered release strategy could significantly alter the product line. However, analysts maintain a "long-term hold" rating due to concerns over the company's high valuation [12][13].