CNOOC(SH:600938) 光大证券研究·2026-01-08 23:04Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has established a comprehensive marine energy development system, positioning itself as a leader in the marine energy sector, focusing on technological innovation and the transition to a new energy system to support the construction of a marine power nation [4]. Group 1: Performance and Financials - CNOOC's performance in 2023 has significantly exceeded historical oil price levels, demonstrating resilience during periods of declining oil prices [5]. - The company's free cash flow has improved markedly, exceeding 100 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, with the interest-bearing debt ratio decreasing from 17% in 2021 to 6% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - CNOOC plans to achieve capital expenditures of 125 to 135 billion yuan in 2025, laying a solid foundation for long-term production growth, and commits to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [5]. Group 2: Production and Cost Efficiency - CNOOC's oil and gas production is projected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0% for crude oil and 10.5% for natural gas from 2021 to 2024 [7]. - The company's estimated oil equivalent reserves for 2024 stand at 7.3 billion barrels, with the cash flow value of these reserves still underestimated [7]. - The average cost per barrel for the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to be $27.35, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, which is significantly lower than competitors in both domestic and international markets [7]. Group 3: Energy Transition and ESG Governance - CNOOC is actively pursuing the acquisition of new energy resources and project development, promoting offshore wind power alongside oil and gas production [8]. - The company aims to replace 760 million kilowatt-hours with green electricity through shore power projects by 2024, with expectations to exceed 1 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 30% [8]. - CNOOC is exploring pathways for the industrialization of offshore CCS/CCUS and is developing two offshore CCUS bases in Bohai and Hainan, maintaining a stable ESG rating that ranks among the top in the petrochemical industry [8].