BABA(US:BABA) 财富FORTUNE·2026-01-09 13:05Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock performance reflects a dichotomy in investor sentiment, balancing short-term profit concerns due to heavy investments in instant retail against long-term optimism for its AI and cloud computing initiatives [1][3]. Group 1: Current Financial Performance - Alibaba's management has committed to increasing investments in Taobao Flash Sales to become the "absolute leader" in the instant retail market, which may lead to a significant EBITDA decline of 80% year-on-year in Q3 FY2026, with potential losses reaching 350 billion yuan according to Daiwa Securities [3][4]. - The substantial investment is expected to pressure the core e-commerce business's profitability, prompting Citigroup to lower its earnings forecasts and target price due to anticipated slow growth in customer management revenue [4]. Group 2: Future Growth Prospects - In contrast to concerns over its consumer business, there is a strong consensus among institutions regarding the growth prospects of Alibaba Cloud, with Citigroup maintaining a 35% annual growth rate forecast for its revenue [5]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecast for FY2026-28 to 460 billion yuan, driven by the transformation of AI-related capital expenditures into robust growth [5]. - Alibaba Cloud has shown accelerating revenue growth over several quarters, with AI-related product revenues maintaining triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, positioning it as a core growth engine [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Valuation - The Hong Kong market is more sensitive to short-term profits and cash flow, leading to a suppression of Alibaba's valuation due to high loss expectations, which also affects the Hang Seng Tech Index [6]. - In contrast, the US market tends to assign higher value to long-term growth narratives, making Alibaba's AI growth story more appealing to global investors [6]. - The divergence in market reactions highlights the different valuation models employed by local and international investors, with the latter focusing on long-term growth potential [6]. Group 4: Future Challenges and Expectations - For Alibaba to shift from being perceived as a "drag" on the market to a growth engine, it must demonstrate a clear path to profitability in the instant retail sector and validate its cloud and AI growth through sustained performance [7][8]. - The market is looking for signs of "loss convergence" in the instant retail battle and continued over-performance in cloud revenue growth to alleviate pressure on Alibaba's stock price [7]. - The future trajectory of Alibaba will depend on the outcomes of its two strategic battles: gaining market share in instant retail and converting current investments in AI and cloud into future dominance [8].