Microsoft(US:MSFT) 美股研究社·2026-01-10 06:16Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is expected to deliver impressive results by 2026, focusing on the timing of revenue recognition and normalization of profit margins, which may lead to reasonable stock price increases after a period of stagnation since July 2024 [1]. Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - Microsoft has one of the best forward revenue visibility among large tech peers, with commercial remaining performance obligations (RPOs) growing 51% year-over-year to $392 billion, nearly doubling in two years [5]. - The weighted average duration of RPOs is two years, indicating high visibility compared to other software backlogs, which are often optional or long-term [5]. - Azure's demand remains strong, with a reported growth rate of 40% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, although actual demand is believed to be higher due to supply constraints [6]. - Operating expenses grew by approximately 5%, while revenue increased by about 18%, demonstrating healthy efficiency in a high-cost AI environment [7]. Group 2: AI and Market Position - Microsoft is building a robust cloud and AI infrastructure, achieving over 30% improvement in GPU token throughput through software optimization, which mitigates risks associated with GPU cycles [8]. - Copilot's monthly active users (MAU) have surpassed 150 million, with overall AI interactions reaching approximately 900 million users, indicating strong adoption trends [10]. - The monetization of Copilot is expected to follow a non-dilutive revenue expansion path, enhancing pricing power without harming existing software revenues [10]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that capacity will catch up with demand by late 2026, leading to revenue expansion without the need for new demand creation [11]. - Concerns regarding AI spending excess and commercialization are expected to shift from "if" to "how much" in 2026, as enterprise deployments increase [12]. - The upcoming fiscal 2026 second quarter will be closely monitored for progress in RPO growth and alignment of short-term assets with contract durations [12][13].