数据点评 | 就业“新稳态”——12月美国就业数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs in December, slightly below expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% [1][7] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [1][7] - Market reactions were muted following the data release, with slight fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar index [1][6] Structure: Understanding the Divergence Between Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate - December's employment in the goods-producing sector was weak, reflecting impacts from tariffs and other factors [2][18] - The construction sector saw a decrease of 11,000 jobs, while manufacturing employment declined further, influenced by real estate market conditions and immigration factors [2][18] - Private service sector jobs increased by 58,000, up from 32,000 in the previous month [2][18] - The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.4% was primarily due to tightening labor supply and temporary layoffs being reversed, indicating a divergence in non-farm employment and unemployment rate trends [2][25] Outlook: U.S. Economy Continues "Low-Growth Balance" and Fed Rate Cut Expectations May Be "Delayed" - The characteristics of the U.S. economy in 2026 may include a "low-growth balance" in employment and "jobless prosperity" [3][28] - The economy is expected to maintain a "low-growth balance" due to synchronized supply and demand contractions, but factors like resilient consumer spending and AI capital expenditures may sustain "jobless prosperity" [3][28] - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" in the first half of 2026 could boost consumer spending and inflation, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut schedule [3][30]