SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2026-01-11 03:33Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rebound in overseas risk appetite, with geopolitical tensions leading to significant increases in gold and oil prices [2][5]. - Major developed market indices saw gains, with the Nikkei 225, DAX, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 3.2%, 2.9%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.4% [5]. - Emerging market indices also experienced growth, with the Korean Composite Index, Istanbul Stock Exchange National 30 Index, and Ho Chi Minh Index increasing by 6.4%, 5.9%, and 4.7% respectively [5]. Group 2 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.6% and 1.9% respectively, while the WTI crude oil price increased by 3.1% to $59.1 per barrel, and COMEX gold prices rose by 3.6% to $4,473.0 per ounce [2][32]. - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $783.6 billion, and the net issuance of U.S. debt fell, with the 15-day rolling net issuance amount dropping to -$27.03 billion [47]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.82 trillion, lower than the $1.91 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024 [50]. Group 3 - The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, despite non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, which was below market expectations [64]. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 47.9, marking a third consecutive month of decline, primarily driven by inventory destocking [66]. - The article notes that the labor market is experiencing a "low-growth balance," with potential for continued economic resilience driven by consumer spending and fiscal stimulus [64].