2026智驾芯片市场格局

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the intelligent driving chip market has shifted from algorithm functionality to core hardware chips, with significant developments from domestic chip manufacturers like Horizon and Momenta [3]. Group 1: Domestic Intelligent Driving Chips - Horizon's J6P chip has completed hardware design and is in performance testing, with plans to achieve vehicle readiness by Q2 2026, targeting mid-to-high-end models [5]. - Horizon plans to reduce the price of the J6P chip by approximately 15% by 2026, with potential discounts of up to 20% for major clients like BYD, impacting the mid-to-high-end chip market [5]. - Momenta's BMC chip has entered the testing phase, focusing on cost advantages and targeting the market for vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan, with expected mass production in 2026 [6][7]. - Momenta anticipates a significant increase in output, projecting around 1 million units in 2026, driven by partnerships with SAIC, GAC, and Chery [7]. Group 2: Algorithm and Performance Comparison - In standard driving scenarios, both Momenta and Horizon perform similarly, but Momenta excels in complex scenarios, benefiting from its extensive urban experience [8]. - Momenta's software-driven hardware model allows for better adaptation to market needs, enhancing user experience and providing tailored tools for automakers [8]. Group 3: Self-Development vs. Collaboration - Different automakers are adopting varied strategies, with companies like NIO and Li Auto focusing on self-developed chips, while others like Chery and Geely are opting for a mixed approach [9][12]. - High-end models are more likely to utilize self-developed chips to enhance profit margins and adapt to specific driving algorithms, while mid-to-low-end models prioritize cost-effectiveness [13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a coexistence of self-developed chips and third-party suppliers, with domestic chip market share projected to reach around 10% by 2026 [15]. - NVIDIA is expected to maintain a significant market share in high-end models, while domestic suppliers like Horizon and Momenta are anticipated to capture substantial portions of the mid-to-low-end market [15]. - The price trends indicate that while low-end chips are stabilizing, high-end chips from NVIDIA may see price increases, while domestic chips like those from Momenta are expected to drop significantly [21]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities for Domestic Chips - Domestic chips still face challenges in performance and algorithm ecosystem compared to NVIDIA, with a technology gap of about 1-1.5 generations [17]. - The Robotaxi sector presents an opportunity for domestic chips, although current limitations in performance and ecosystem integration hinder broader adoption [18][19]. Group 6: Price Trends and Market Projections - The pricing landscape for intelligent driving chips varies significantly based on performance, with low-end chips around 1,000 yuan and high-end chips from NVIDIA priced between 8,000-9,000 yuan [21]. - The competitive landscape in 2026 will be crucial, with domestic chips pushing for wider adoption and price reductions, enhancing the overall driving experience for consumers [22].