嚷嚷了五年，钠电池这次要来真的了

Core Viewpoint - Sodium-ion batteries are gaining renewed attention in the industry, particularly due to their cost advantages and abundant raw materials, positioning them as a potential alternative to lithium-ion batteries in various applications [5][10][18]. Group 1: Market Context and Development - CATL's commitment to large-scale application of sodium-ion batteries by 2026 across multiple sectors, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, battery swapping, and energy storage, signals a significant shift in the industry [8]. - The sodium-ion battery market has seen substantial investment, with over 100 billion yuan allocated to various projects, aiming for a production capacity nearing 500 GWh [11][14]. - The rapid fluctuation in lithium carbonate prices has historically influenced the interest in sodium-ion batteries, with a notable price drop in 2023 leading to decreased urgency in sodium battery development [11][14]. Group 2: Technical Advantages - Sodium-ion batteries boast a significantly lower raw material cost due to the abundance of sodium, which is approximately 400 times more plentiful than lithium in the Earth's crust, reducing supply chain risks [10]. - They exhibit excellent low-temperature performance, maintaining 90% capacity at -40°C, which addresses winter range issues for electric vehicles [14]. - The cost sensitivity of sodium-ion batteries is lower compared to lithium iron phosphate batteries, with a 10% increase in key mineral prices resulting in only a 0.8% cost increase for sodium batteries [10]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - Despite their advantages, sodium-ion batteries face a critical challenge with lower energy density, which is essential for vehicle range. The current energy density of sodium cells is around 160 Wh/kg, lagging behind lithium-ion alternatives [15][18]. - The energy density issue must be resolved for sodium batteries to achieve widespread adoption, especially as lithium prices stabilize [15][18]. - CATL's second-generation sodium battery has improved to 175 Wh/kg, approaching the performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries, but still requires further advancements to meet market demands [22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - CATL's strategic positioning suggests that sodium-ion batteries could potentially replace 20%-30% of lithium iron phosphate batteries in small vehicles, with projections indicating this could rise to 50% in the future [22]. - The ongoing development and investment in sodium-ion technology indicate a strong potential for market disruption, particularly as the technology matures and production scales up [22].