你没看错！美光：存储将缺货到2028年！

Core Viewpoint - Micron is a leading memory manufacturer facing a significant demand surge in DRAM memory due to the rise of artificial intelligence, which has led to a supply shortage affecting both consumer and data center markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Market Situation - The total addressable market (TAM) for data centers is rapidly expanding, with potential market size increasing from 30%-35% to 50%-60%, indicating a substantial demand for memory [2] - Micron's OEM consumer channel constitutes a significant portion of its market share, supplying major PC brands like Dell and Asus, thus maintaining a presence in the consumer market despite the exit from the "Crucial" brand [2][3] - The current supply shortage is not solely a Micron issue but a broader industry challenge, with all manufacturers struggling to meet the heightened demand [3] Group 2: Production Capacity and Challenges - Micron is facing challenges in adjusting production lines to meet varying memory module capacities, which complicates efforts to increase overall DRAM output [5][6] - The company is working to stabilize demand and production to maximize yield, as fluctuations in memory configurations can lead to reduced output [6] - Significant expansions in production capacity will not yield results until 2028 due to the lengthy process of construction and customer certification [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - There is increasing speculation about Chinese memory suppliers potentially filling market gaps, with Micron welcoming competition as a means to improve its own offerings [8][9] - The memory industry is experiencing a strong demand driven by AI infrastructure, which is expected to sustain high prices and profitability for manufacturers [10][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the demand for NAND flash and DRAM will continue to grow, with capital expenditures from major tech companies expected to rise significantly [14][17] - Despite the current high demand, memory manufacturers are cautious about expanding production capacity due to past experiences with market volatility [17][18]