Micron Technology(US:MU) 美股IPO·2026-01-12 12:56Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI data centers has reshaped the DRAM market, accounting for 50%-60% of the market, which is the core reason for the current supply shortage [1][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply shortage in the memory market is not due to manufacturers adjusting customer structures but is driven by the explosive demand from AI data centers and increasing manufacturing complexity [3][4]. - The structural change in DRAM demand, with AI-related needs rising from 30%-40% to 50%-60%, indicates that the entire industry faces a "capacity shortage" rather than a single manufacturer's resource allocation issue [5][6]. Group 2: Production Challenges - The main bottleneck in DRAM production is not the number of devices but the fragmentation of product specifications, which leads to production inefficiencies due to frequent switching between different designs [7][8]. - Manufacturers are focusing on reducing the variety of chip specifications to maximize output, as the demand for different capacities (8GB, 12GB, 16GB) increases [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The significant improvement in memory supply is not expected until around 2028, despite high capital expenditures in the industry [4][6]. - New production lines, such as Micron's ID1 facility in Idaho, will take time to ramp up and achieve stable output, with substantial changes in supply-demand dynamics likely occurring only after 2028 [8].