中金：用麦当劳算汇率是误导

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the Chinese yuan is not significantly undervalued, challenging the notion that the price of a Big Mac in China compared to the U.S. indicates a misalignment in exchange rates. It emphasizes that using such simplistic comparisons can be misleading due to various economic factors that influence currency valuation [3][5][24]. Group 1: Theoretical Framework - The concept of absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) is introduced, which suggests that identical goods should have the same price when adjusted for exchange rates. This is based on the law of one price [3][7]. - The article highlights three main flaws in using the law of one price to assess exchange rates: it applies only to tradable goods, the conditions for its validity are rarely met, and it overlooks the significant impact of asset prices on exchange rates [4][8][24]. Group 2: Non-Tradable Goods and Price Composition - A significant portion of the costs associated with a Big Mac in China is derived from non-tradable goods, such as labor and rent, which constitute over 70% of its price. This makes it inappropriate to use the Big Mac as a benchmark for tradable goods [12][24]. - The article provides specific data showing that labor accounts for 45.6% of the Big Mac's price, while rent and electricity contribute 4.6% and 5.1%, respectively [12][24]. Group 3: Income Levels and Price Disparities - The article discusses the Balassa-Samuelson effect, which explains that higher-income countries tend to have higher absolute price levels due to greater productivity in tradable sectors, leading to increased wages in non-tradable sectors as well [9][24]. - It notes that even when comparing similar products, prices in high-income countries are generally higher than in low-income countries, which contradicts the absolute PPP theory [9][10]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Market Expectations - The article emphasizes that capital flows and market expectations play a more significant role in determining exchange rates than commodity prices, especially in a global economy where foreign exchange transactions far exceed trade volumes [22][24]. - It contrasts the classical view of exchange rate determination with a Keynesian perspective, which suggests that exchange rates do not necessarily converge to a single equilibrium value and can be influenced by speculative capital movements [23][24].