DRAM三巨头产能，1800万片

Core Viewpoint - The global memory market is experiencing a severe shortage due to explosive demand for high-performance memory from AI servers, which is expected to drive price increases throughout 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major memory manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, have initiated capacity expansion plans, but these efforts are insufficient to alleviate the current memory shortage [1]. - Samsung plans to increase its DRAM wafer input to nearly 8 million pieces by 2026, a 5% increase from 2025 [1]. - SK Hynix's DRAM production is expected to rise from 5.97 million pieces in 2025 to 6.48 million pieces in 2026, an 8% increase, driven by expansion at its Cheongju M15X plant [2]. Group 2: Production Challenges - Despite increased wafer input, actual chip output faces technical bottlenecks, particularly for Samsung as it transitions to 10nm 6th generation DRAM, which may temporarily reduce production capacity [2]. - The supply-demand imbalance is critical, with DRAM suppliers meeting only about 60% of customer demand, and server-specific DRAM satisfaction rates falling below 50% [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - DRAM contract prices are expected to rise sharply, with a forecasted increase of 55% to 60% in Q1 2026 [3]. - NAND Flash contract prices are also projected to increase by 33% to 38% during the same period, particularly driven by server demand [3]. - Despite a weak PC market, DRAM prices for PCs are anticipated to continue rising due to reduced supply allocations to PC manufacturers [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Experts believe that the current supply crisis will not see fundamental relief until Samsung's P4 factory becomes operational, which is not expected until after 2027 [4][5]. - SK Hynix also requires the launch of its Yongin semiconductor cluster to significantly enhance production capacity [5].