Nvidia(US:NVDA) 硬AI·2026-01-14 15:22Core Insights - Deutsche Bank predicts that 2026 will mark the year of large-scale deployment for Robotaxis and humanoid robots, transitioning from testing to commercialization [2][3] - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new supply chain for humanoid robots, with suppliers shifting focus to achieve mass production [3][5] Group 1: Humanoid Robot Supply Chain - The supply chain for humanoid robots is taking shape, with actuators becoming the "muscle" entry point [4] - Schaeffler aims to be a key supplier of actuators for humanoid robots, showcasing a compact integrated planetary gear actuator at CES [6] - Hyundai Mobis plans to supply actuators for Boston Dynamics' Atlas, leveraging the automotive supply chain for manufacturing [7] Group 2: Onboard Chip Landscape - Nvidia remains the dominant player in onboard processors for humanoid robots due to performance and ease of use, with various companies utilizing its Jetson Orin or Thor [8][9] - Tesla and Xpeng are developing their own inference chips, indicating a diversification in the chip landscape [9] Group 3: Physical AI Transition - A significant paradigm shift is observed from pre-programmed actions to visual-language-action (VLA), enabling robots to reason and complete tasks [11][12] - The industry debate has shifted from "simulation vs. reality" to how to efficiently close the loop between the two [14] Group 4: Commercial Viability of Humanoid Robots - The report suggests that general-purpose humanoid robots will initially be deployed in specific scenarios to prove commercial viability before entering households [18][19] - Keenon Robotics holds a 40% global market share in service robots, with plans to showcase its humanoid robot XMAN-R1 at CES 2026 [20] Group 5: Cost Reduction and Scalability - Cost reduction in humanoid robots is driven by increased volume and improved supplier negotiations, with some companies reporting costs dropping from $200,000 to $100,000 [22][24] - Mobileye's Mentee project indicates that with an annual production of 50,000 units, manufacturing costs could drop to $20,000 per unit, and potentially to $10,000 with 100,000 units [24] Group 6: Robotaxi Commercialization Momentum - Deutsche Bank believes that 2026 will see stronger commercialization momentum for Robotaxis, with Tesla planning to launch its Robotaxi in 2025 [26][27] - Waymo has provided over 10 million paid rides since its inception, with plans to expand its service to international markets [27][28] Group 7: Nvidia's Alpamayo Platform - Nvidia introduced the Alpamayo platform for autonomous driving, aiming to lower the barrier for automakers to deploy advanced capabilities [30][31] - Despite the potential advantages, concerns remain about whether Nvidia can meet real-world edge cases compared to Tesla's data collection [31][32] Group 8: Industry Innovations - Aptiv showcased an end-to-end AI-driven ADAS platform, emphasizing cross-industry applications and real-time data sharing [33] - Visteon launched a SmartCore HPC domain controller with 700 TOPS, facilitating the integration of multiple sensors into a single system [35]