Tesla(US:TSLA) 老徐抓AI趋势·2026-01-15 01:05Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent stock price decline is attributed to fourth-quarter delivery numbers falling short of market expectations, raising questions about whether this decline signifies the end of a trend or a predictable fluctuation [2][4]. Timeline Review - The stock price drop was not unexpected, as it followed key events leading up to it [5]. - On October 23, Tesla released its third-quarter earnings report, which initially caused panic in the market. However, the fundamentals were not as poor as perceived, indicating that 2026 would still be a significant year for Tesla [7]. - Following the initial panic, the stock price rebounded from around $420 to nearly $500, but caution was advised due to an impending challenge [8]. Anticipated Challenges - The anticipated challenge was the fourth-quarter sales, which were expected to be pressured due to a "policy overdraft effect" caused by the expiration of U.S. electric vehicle purchase subsidies on September 30. This led to a surge in third-quarter sales, making fourth-quarter performance difficult [9][14]. Market Reactions - The stock price began to decline before the sales data was released because the market anticipated the fourth-quarter pressure, indicating that the decline was more about "expectation fulfillment" rather than a collapse of logic [15]. Key Developments in Autonomous Driving - A significant development is Tesla's recruitment of high-performance computing engineers in Shanghai, indicating preparations for the rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China [17]. - Elon Musk mentioned during the third-quarter earnings call that FSD is expected to enter the Chinese market in early 2026, which many may have overlooked [19]. Data Regulation and Local Training - For FSD to perform well in China, local data and training are essential due to strict data regulations, necessitating the establishment of local computing centers [20]. - The recruitment of HPC engineers signals a serious commitment to building local infrastructure for FSD, indicating a higher level of certainty regarding this initiative [21]. Market Implications of FSD - If FSD successfully launches in China, it could enhance product differentiation, increase vehicle appeal, and boost software revenue, fundamentally changing the value proposition [23]. - The potential for Robotaxi services could transform asset efficiency and valuation models once autonomous driving reaches a certain maturity [24]. Continuous Monitoring and Adaptation - The analysis emphasizes the importance of ongoing assessment and adaptation in the fast-evolving tech landscape, rather than relying on static predictions [26]. - The focus should be on identifying key signals and maintaining a stable judgment amidst market fluctuations, which is crucial for navigating the investment landscape [32].