CSSC Holdings(SH:600150) 中金点睛·2026-01-15 23:45Core Viewpoint - The shipbuilding industry experienced a decline in new orders in 2025, with a stable price environment. However, the industry is expected to recover in 2026 due to ongoing demand for fleet renewal driven by aging vessels and environmental regulations, alongside China's competitive advantage in high-value ship types [1][4]. Group 1: 2025 Review - In 2025, global new ship orders amounted to 56.43 million CGT, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, attributed to high base effects, US-China trade tensions, and elevated ship prices [5][8]. - The new ship price index remained high, ending the year at 184.66, a decrease of 2.38% from the previous year [8]. - By ship type, new orders for oil tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships saw significant variations, with oil tankers down 46%, bulk carriers down 38%, and container ships up 11% [9]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is projected to see a recovery in demand, with an estimated average of 14 million DWT in new orders annually over the next decade, primarily driven by bulk carriers and oil tankers [53][64]. - The global shipyard delivery volume in 2025 was 96.83 million DWT, with expectations of reaching 117 million DWT in 2026, reflecting a 21% increase [65]. - The order coverage ratio for shipyards is high, indicating a robust backlog that is likely to support continued order accumulation [65]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for oil tankers is expected to grow due to stable trade demand, while the supply side is projected to see a moderate increase in capacity, with oil tanker capacity growth estimated at 2.01% in 2026 [18][20]. - The dry bulk market is experiencing a shift in trade demand towards bauxite, with overall trade volume expected to increase by 2% in 2026 [21][22]. - Container shipping demand is forecasted to slow, with a projected decline in ton-mile demand due to geopolitical uncertainties [26]. Group 4: Replacement Demand - The average age of the global fleet has increased, reaching 22.6 years, indicating a potential peak in replacement demand as older vessels are phased out [29][40]. - Approximately 50% of new orders in 2025 were for alternative fuel vessels, with LNG and methanol-powered ships leading the way [39][41]. - The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) emissions reduction strategy, although delayed, continues to drive the need for fleet renewal and compliance with stricter environmental standards [39][40]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - China's shipbuilding industry remains dominant, holding 62% of the global order backlog despite a 35% decline in new orders in 2025 [47][50]. - The concentration of shipbuilding capacity has increased, with the top ten shipyards holding a significant share of the market, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [43][44]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with Chinese shipyards expected to benefit from high-value orders and improved capacity utilization [49][50].