芯片今年或将大跌12%

Group 1 - The global semiconductor industry is expected to face high uncertainty in the coming year, with a projected market growth rate of around ±12% for 2026, indicating that the 22% growth rate for 2025 is overly concentrated and does not represent a comprehensive recovery for the industry [1] - If demand for AI infrastructure weakens and traditional markets like smartphones and automobiles do not rebound, the semiconductor industry may experience a sharp decline this year [1] - Current uncertainties include when chip shipments will recover, whether average prices can continue to rise, and the impact of over-investment in traditional node wafer fabs, particularly in China [1] Group 2 - A strong semiconductor market is currently driven by AI applications, with a McKinsey survey indicating that by 2025, 88% of companies will use AI, up from 55% in 2023 [2] - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts a 20% growth in 2024, followed by 22% in 2025 and 26% in 2026, primarily driven by memory and logic devices [2] - Memory is expected to grow by 28% in 2025 and 39% in 2026, while logic devices are projected to grow by 37% in 2025 and 32% in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Historical patterns from past semiconductor bubbles, such as the PC and internet bubbles, suggest that the current AI boom may also experience a significant downturn after a period of strong growth [4][10] - The PC market saw an 85% growth in 1983 followed by an 11% decline in 1985, leading to a 17% drop in the semiconductor market [5][6] - The internet bubble led to a 32% decline in the semiconductor market in 2001, with a subsequent recovery in 2003 [7][8] Group 4 - The key question is not whether the AI bubble will burst, but when it will occur, as all major new technologies typically experience a strong growth phase followed by a slowdown [10] - Historical experience indicates that the AI bubble may burst within the next one to two years, which would not signify the end of the technology but rather an adjustment phase [10]