ASML Holding(US:ASML) 硬AI·2026-01-16 14:06Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that ASML is at the beginning of its strongest profit cycle, with 2027 expected to be a peak year for profitability, projecting sales of approximately €46.8 billion and EBIT of €19.7 billion, with a gross margin of 56.2% [1][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Profit Explosion - The profit surge is driven by three main engines: strong demand from advanced logic foundries, large-scale capacity expansion in the DRAM memory sector, and better-than-expected demand performance [3][4]. - ASML's target price has been significantly raised from €1000 to €1400, maintaining its "Overweight" rating and "Top Pick" status [3][4]. Group 2: Advanced Logic Foundry Demand - TSMC's substantial increase in capital expenditure is a key catalyst, with guidance for 2026 capital spending set at $52-56 billion, a 32% year-on-year increase, with 70-80% allocated to advanced processes [7]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its EUV equipment procurement expectations for TSMC from about 20 units to 29 for 2026, and from 28 to 40 for 2027 [8][10]. Group 3: DRAM Market Dynamics - The DRAM market is experiencing unprecedented demand, with prices for HBM and general DRAM rising to near-historic levels due to capacity shortages [11][15]. - This trend is expected to last for at least 1-2 quarters, leading to significant capacity investments in DRAM manufacturing, thereby increasing demand for ASML's EUV and DUV tools [15][16]. Group 4: Demand Performance - Demand from leading memory chip manufacturers remains strong, with expectations that ASML's upcoming financial report will reflect better-than-previously guided demand [18][20]. - For Q4, ASML is expected to report orders of €7.27 billion, surpassing Q3's €5.4 billion, including 19 EUV low-NA tools primarily from TSMC [21]. Group 5: Financial Projections - For 2027, ASML is projected to achieve approximately €46.8 billion in sales, with system sales of €36.87 billion and IBM sales of €9.9 billion, alongside a gross margin increase to 56.2% [26][27]. - Morgan Stanley maintains ASML as a top stock pick, applying a 31x P/E valuation with a target price of €1400, and suggests a bull case scenario could see the target price reach €2000 based on an EPS of €50 and a 40x P/E [27].