美国暂不征收“关键矿产”关税，摩根大通：白银暂时扛住了，但回调风险巨大，这对黄金是机会

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest research report indicates a relatively mild regulatory stance on 232 key mineral executive orders, which has not imposed tariffs on precious metals like silver, creating a favorable market environment. The firm maintains a strong bullish outlook on gold while warning of significant pullback risks in the silver market [1][4]. Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market has shown multiple warning signals: prices have significantly diverged from fundamental predictions, ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows, industrial demand is under pressure, and supply in non-US regions is becoming more relaxed [1]. - Since Christmas, silver prices have risen approximately 25%, while ETFs have seen a net outflow of about 18 million ounces, indicating a rare divergence in market behavior [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is facing increasing pressure, with Morgan Stanley previously warning that rising silver prices could threaten solar industry demand by 50 to 60 million ounces over the next few years [10][11]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - COMEX silver inventory has decreased from about 530 million ounces in early October to approximately 430 million ounces, with a notable acceleration in outflows since January, averaging close to 2 million ounces per day [6]. - The trend of silver inventory moving from New York to London has improved liquidity in the spot market, alleviating the pressure on forward market structures [15]. - The total silver holdings in London have increased by about 104 million ounces since September, closely matching the reduction in COMEX inventory [15]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expresses a stronger bullish sentiment towards gold compared to silver, with stable inflows into gold ETFs as investors seek to hedge against various risks, including potential challenges to Federal Reserve independence and geopolitical tensions [17]. - The current gold price is running ahead of Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast, which anticipated an average of $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, suggesting that gold could reach this target sooner if risk factors continue to escalate [18].