DRAM，大厂警告

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry, particularly in DRAM and high bandwidth memory (HBM), is experiencing significant supply shortages driven by strong demand from AI applications, smartphones, and PCs. Major manufacturers are prioritizing production for AI-related products, leading to a competitive landscape for securing supply beyond 2027 [1][4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Micron Technology has indicated that the demand for HBM is increasing, while traditional markets like smartphones and PCs are facing severe supply shortages [1]. - Counterpoint Research estimates a 2.1% decline in global smartphone shipments this year due to rising costs and memory shortages [2]. - South Asia Technology's management noted the presence of duplicate orders in the DRAM market, prompting a cautious approach to capacity allocation to avoid stockpiling by clients [4]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM increased by 30% in Q4 last year, with expectations of a slight increase in Q1, although not as significant as the previous quarter [5][6]. - TrendForce reported a more than 10% increase in DRAM prices in the second week of January, with predictions of a 55-60% rise in contract prices for Q1 compared to the previous quarter [7][8]. - NAND flash prices are also expected to rise significantly, with a forecasted increase of 33-38% in Q1 [8]. Group 3: Company Performance Expectations - Samsung Electronics is projected to achieve a record operating profit of approximately 133 trillion KRW from its memory semiconductor business, driven by increased shipments of high-value memory and price hikes due to AI data center expansions [9]. - SK Hynix is also expected to report an operating profit of around 115 trillion KRW this year, reflecting the overall positive outlook for the memory semiconductor sector [9].