台湾正在失去台积电？

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's expansion into the U.S. marks a significant shift in its strategy, driven by the need to be closer to major clients like Nvidia and Apple, as well as to mitigate geopolitical risks associated with potential conflicts involving Taiwan [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion Plans - TSMC plans to invest over $250 billion in the U.S., with a significant portion allocated for building multiple chip manufacturing plants in Arizona, expanding its presence to approximately 12 factories in the state [1]. - The company has committed $165 billion for six logic chip factories and two packaging chip factories, which are essential for advanced computing [1]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for this year could reach up to $56 billion, indicating a robust investment strategy [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Considerations - The agreement with the Trump administration includes a commitment from Taiwan to invest over $250 billion in the U.S., while the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% [1]. - TSMC's expansion is seen as a response to the geopolitical landscape, particularly the advancements in China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [2][4]. - The concept of the "Silicon Shield," which posits that Taiwan's semiconductor industry is crucial to global economic stability, is being reevaluated as TSMC diversifies its manufacturing locations [2][9]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - TSMC faces challenges in Arizona, including water scarcity and a shortage of skilled labor, which could impact its expansion efforts [9]. - Analysts suggest that a significant portion of TSMC's advanced manufacturing may remain in Taiwan for the next decade, despite the ongoing expansion in the U.S. [9][10]. - The timeline for establishing reliable manufacturing capabilities outside Taiwan is projected to be around 2030 to 2035, with full resilience against major disruptions potentially taking until mid-century [10].