Chongqing Qianli Technology(SH:601777) 东吴汽车黄细里团队·2026-01-19 11:50Investment Highlights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with automotive business revenue at 4.217 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year, while motorcycle business remains stable at 2.14 billion yuan [2] - Cash flow has improved, with a net operating cash flow of 525 million yuan in 2024, marking a turnaround from losses; the debt-to-asset ratio is 46.28%, significantly improved from the peak of 85.4% in 2019, indicating a gradual release of financial risk [2] - As the proportion of intelligent driving business increases, the company's profit structure is expected to continue to optimize [2] Strategic Transformation - Following its bankruptcy restructuring in 2020, the company established a stable control structure by introducing Geely Group, Chongqing Liangjiang Capital, and Megvii Technology, forming a "car company + government + technology" triad [3] - The company officially changed its name from "Lifan Technology" to "Qianli Technology" in 2025, marking its expansion from traditional manufacturing to smart mobility [3] - The management team, led by Megvii's founder Yin Qi, focuses on AI strategy, while former Huawei Car BU president Wang Jun oversees technology implementation, providing talent support for the "AI + car" strategy [3] Intelligent Driving Technology - The company has launched the Qianli Intelligent Driving 1.0 plan, covering multiple levels of intelligent driving functions, with plans to release an L3-level solution within six months and Robotaxi technology by H2 2026 [4] - The "Qianli Haohan" system, combined with Thor chips and multimodal large models, has already been mass-produced in models like Zeekr 9X, with technical indicators leading the industry [4] - The company leverages Geely's computing power center and AI-Drive large model to generate complex driving scenarios at a rate of 10,000 kilometers per hour, showcasing industry-leading data iteration efficiency [4] Business Synergy and Growth - The terminal business, particularly Ruiblue Automotive, focuses on the charging and swapping new energy sector, achieving sales of 38,131 units in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 176% [5] - The company is closely tied to Cao Cao Mobility, which is projected to have a 5.4% market share in the ride-hailing sector in 2024, ranking among the top three in the industry [5] - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for Cao Cao's customized vehicles is estimated to be 33%-40% lower than industry standards, enhancing profitability in the ride-hailing business [6] Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company forecasts revenues of 8.9 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PS valuations of 5.86, 4.89, and 4.06 times [7] - Given the successful AI transformation and expected growth in intelligent driving business, the company is rated as a "buy" for initial coverage [7] Motorcycle Business - The motorcycle business focuses on both fuel and new energy segments, with stable revenue and profitability, and an upward trend in revenue from 2020 to 2024 [43] - The company has launched high-displacement models and integrated smart features, with the motorcycle business expected to grow significantly, mirroring trends seen in Japan [46][49] Automotive Business - Qianli Technology's automotive segment, particularly through Ruiblue Automotive, is expected to see a significant increase in revenue share, reaching 59.96% of total revenue by 2024 [51] - The company has a strong export history, with fuel models seeing significant growth, and plans to expand its international market presence [59] Technology Business - The company aims to establish an "AI + car" ecosystem, with a focus on intelligent driving and smart cockpit technologies, leveraging partnerships with Geely and other industry players [65][106] - The establishment of Chongqing Qianli Intelligent Driving Technology Co., Ltd. in 2025 marks a significant step in integrating technology, capital, and policy resources for future growth in the intelligent driving sector [70][72]