[Table_Info1] 千里科技(601777) 汽车 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2026-01-21 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司动态报告 传统主业表现稳健，转型"AI+车"进展顺利 [Table_Summary] 传统主业表现稳健，提供稳定现金流。25 年全年公司乘用车实现销量 10.63 万台，同比+83.93%。受益于汽车和摩托车销量提升，前三季度公 司实现营业收入 69.46 亿元，同比+44.27%；实现归母净利润 0.53 亿元， 同比+33.37%。经营性现金流方面，公司前三季度经营活动产生的现金流 量净额达到 25.08 亿元，同比+363.95%，实现大幅增长，主要原因是公 司营收增长，收回的贷款增加以及收到政府补助增多。 转型"AI+车"进展顺利，智驾业务成为核心增长引擎。25 年 6 月，千 里智驾正式发布面向 L2+级的智能辅助驾驶解决方案（千里智驾 1.0）， 以及与阶跃星辰联合研发的千里智驾 RLM 大模型。25 年 12 月，由千里 科技、吉利、迈驰、路特斯合资组建的"千里智驾"宣布整合完毕，聚 焦前沿智驾技术和产品，为行业打造具有更"高含模 ...

千里科技 20260120 摘要 千里科技在智能化浪潮中占据优势，拥有顶尖 AI 和智能驾驶人才储备， 是 A 股市场中少数能提供全套算法解决方案的公司，并在 Robot Taxi 领域积极布局。 公司通过破产重组引入吉利和两江资本等战略投资者，并与吉利成立睿 蓝汽车。2024 年旷视创始人印奇成为董事长，公司转型为科技主导型 企业，奔驰也宣布入股。 千里科技目前核心业务包括摩托车、乘用车（睿蓝汽车）和智能驾驶技 术。摩托车业务盈利稳定，乘用车业务以网约车和出口为主，智能驾驶 技术是重点发展方向。 公司财务状况在 2025 年前主要依赖摩托车和睿蓝汽车销售，摩托车业 务稳定盈利，睿蓝汽车业务波动较大。预计 2026 年通过 H 股上市改善 现金流。 公司看好 Robot Taxi 发展前景，预计 2030-2035 年市场规模将显著增 长。公司与曹操出行、吉利合作，打造 Robot Taxi 生态系统，并计划 推出低成本方案。 Q&A 千里科技具备哪些稀缺属性，为什么值得投资者关注？ 千里科技具备以下几方面的稀缺属性，使其成为值得投资者关注的标的。首先， 从产业关系上看，千里科技是吉利未来智能驾驶领域的核心供 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that several listed companies have received target price upgrades from brokers, with notable increases for Guizhou Moutai, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Milkway, reflecting strong market confidence in these companies [1][2]. Group 2 - On January 19, the companies with the highest target price increases were Guizhou Moutai (35.17%), Zhongji Xuchuang (31.96%), and Milkway (29.95%), belonging to the liquor, communication equipment, and logistics industries respectively [1][2]. - A total of 17 listed companies received broker recommendations on January 19, with Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical receiving two recommendations, while Inner Mongolia Huadian and Foreign Service Holdings received one each [2][3]. Group 3 - Three companies received their first coverage from brokers on January 19: Foreign Service Holdings (rated "Buy" by Zhongyin International Securities), Qianli Technology (rated "Buy" by Dongwu Securities), and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (rated "Recommended" by Guolian Minsheng Securities) [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with Guizhou Moutai, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Milkway leading the rankings with target price increases of 35.17%, 31.96%, and 29.95% respectively, across the liquor, communication equipment, and logistics industries [1][2] Group 2 - On January 19, a total of 17 listed companies received broker recommendations, with Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical receiving recommendations from 2 brokers, while Inner Mongolia Electric Power and Foreign Service Holdings received recommendations from 1 broker each [2][3] Group 3 - Three companies received their first coverage on January 19, including Foreign Service Holdings rated "Buy" by Zhongyin International Securities, Qianli Technology rated "Buy" by Dongwu Securities, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical rated "Recommended" by Guolian Minsheng Securities [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - On January 19, several brokerage firms provided target price recommendations for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for Guizhou Moutai, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Milkewei, indicating strong potential in the liquor, communication equipment, and logistics industries respectively [1]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Guizhou Moutai received a target price increase of 35.17%, with a highest target price of 1860.00 yuan [2]. - Zhongji Xuchuang's target price increased by 31.96%, with a highest target price of 799.00 yuan [2]. - Milkewei's target price rose by 29.95%, with a highest target price of 79.14 yuan [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 17 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on January 19, with Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical receiving recommendations from 2 firms, while Inner Mongolia Huadian and Foreign Service Holdings received 1 recommendation each [3]. - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical was the only company with multiple recommendations, indicating strong interest in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [3]. Group 3: First-Time Coverage - Three companies received first-time coverage on January 19, including Foreign Service Holdings with a "Buy" rating from Zhongyin International Securities, Qianli Technology with a "Buy" rating from Dongwu Securities, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical with a "Recommended" rating from Guolian Minsheng Securities [4].

Macro Strategy - The economic growth target of 5% for the year was successfully achieved, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8%, indicating a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index from -1.1% to -0.7% [1][16] - Economic growth was primarily driven by exports and services, with service sector GDP growth at 5.4% and industrial GDP growth at 4.5%. Exports increased by 6.1%, while fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% [1][16] - Q4 price recovery was noted, although still weak, with service retail growth at 5.5% and total retail sales growth at 3.7% [1][16] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term strategic focus under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with continued attention on semiconductor equipment, particularly in advanced processes and domestic replacements [5] - The report recommends focusing on semiconductor equipment ETFs as key investment targets due to favorable policies and performance expectations [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, supported by strategic planning and market demand [22] Company Recommendations - Qianli Technology (601777) is projected to achieve revenues of 8.9 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a "buy" rating based on successful AI transformation and expected growth in smart driving business [14] - IFBH (06603.HK) is expected to see revenues of 188 million, 257 million, and 331 million USD from 2025 to 2027, with a "buy" rating due to improving fundamentals and channel strategies [15] - Hangcha Group (603298) maintains a profit forecast of 2.2 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a "hold" rating reflecting stable performance and market position [15]

Investment Highlights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with automotive business revenue at 4.217 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year, while motorcycle business remains stable at 2.14 billion yuan [2] - Cash flow has improved, with a net operating cash flow of 525 million yuan in 2024, marking a turnaround from losses; the debt-to-asset ratio is 46.28%, significantly improved from the peak of 85.4% in 2019, indicating a gradual release of financial risk [2] - As the proportion of intelligent driving business increases, the company's profit structure is expected to continue to optimize [2] Strategic Transformation - Following its bankruptcy restructuring in 2020, the company established a stable control structure by introducing Geely Group, Chongqing Liangjiang Capital, and Megvii Technology, forming a "car company + government + technology" triad [3] - The company officially changed its name from "Lifan Technology" to "Qianli Technology" in 2025, marking its expansion from traditional manufacturing to smart mobility [3] - The management team, led by Megvii's founder Yin Qi, focuses on AI strategy, while former Huawei Car BU president Wang Jun oversees technology implementation, providing talent support for the "AI + car" strategy [3] Intelligent Driving Technology - The company has launched the Qianli Intelligent Driving 1.0 plan, covering multiple levels of intelligent driving functions, with plans to release an L3-level solution within six months and Robotaxi technology by H2 2026 [4] - The "Qianli Haohan" system, combined with Thor chips and multimodal large models, has already been mass-produced in models like Zeekr 9X, with technical indicators leading the industry [4] - The company leverages Geely's computing power center and AI-Drive large model to generate complex driving scenarios at a rate of 10,000 kilometers per hour, showcasing industry-leading data iteration efficiency [4] Business Synergy and Growth - The terminal business, particularly Ruiblue Automotive, focuses on the charging and swapping new energy sector, achieving sales of 38,131 units in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 176% [5] - The company is closely tied to Cao Cao Mobility, which is projected to have a 5.4% market share in the ride-hailing sector in 2024, ranking among the top three in the industry [5] - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for Cao Cao's customized vehicles is estimated to be 33%-40% lower than industry standards, enhancing profitability in the ride-hailing business [6] Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company forecasts revenues of 8.9 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PS valuations of 5.86, 4.89, and 4.06 times [7] - Given the successful AI transformation and expected growth in intelligent driving business, the company is rated as a "buy" for initial coverage [7] Motorcycle Business - The motorcycle business focuses on both fuel and new energy segments, with stable revenue and profitability, and an upward trend in revenue from 2020 to 2024 [43] - The company has launched high-displacement models and integrated smart features, with the motorcycle business expected to grow significantly, mirroring trends seen in Japan [46][49] Automotive Business - Qianli Technology's automotive segment, particularly through Ruiblue Automotive, is expected to see a significant increase in revenue share, reaching 59.96% of total revenue by 2024 [51] - The company has a strong export history, with fuel models seeing significant growth, and plans to expand its international market presence [59] Technology Business - The company aims to establish an "AI + car" ecosystem, with a focus on intelligent driving and smart cockpit technologies, leveraging partnerships with Geely and other industry players [65][106] - The establishment of Chongqing Qianli Intelligent Driving Technology Co., Ltd. in 2025 marks a significant step in integrating technology, capital, and policy resources for future growth in the intelligent driving sector [70][72]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Qianli Technology (601777) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a significant transformation from traditional manufacturing to smart mobility, with a focus on AI-driven technologies and strategic partnerships [12][15]. - Financial performance is gradually improving, with revenue expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by the automotive and AI sectors [6][27]. - The strategic partnership with Geely and the establishment of Qianli Smart Driving are key to enhancing the company's competitive edge in the smart driving market [70][75]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Transformation and Financial Analysis - Qianli Technology has shifted from a motorcycle-focused business to a smart mobility company, with a new name and strategic direction since 2025 [12][95]. - The company has shown signs of financial recovery, with revenue expected to reach 70.35 billion yuan in 2024, a 3.94% increase year-on-year [1][27]. - The automotive business is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a forecast of 42.17 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 12.9% increase [6][27]. 2. Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Development - The company has formed a stable three-way equity structure involving Geely, local government, and AI technology partners, enhancing its strategic capabilities [19][75]. - Qianli Technology aims to build an "AI Smart Mobility Open Platform" through partnerships with Geely and other industry players, focusing on smart driving solutions [70][75]. 3. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 89 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 128 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PS valuations of 5.86, 4.89, and 4.06 times [1][6]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 89.39 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years [1][27]. 4. Technology and Product Development - Qianli Technology is advancing its smart driving technology, with plans to launch L3 level solutions and Robotaxi technology by 2026 [80][89]. - The company is focusing on developing next-generation intelligent cockpit systems and enhancing its AI capabilities through strategic investments and partnerships [70][80].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a significant transformation from traditional manufacturing to smart mobility, with a focus on AI-driven technologies and strategic partnerships [12][15]. - Financial indicators are gradually improving, with a forecasted revenue increase and a positive cash flow outlook, indicating a recovery from previous financial difficulties [6][27]. - The strategic partnership with Geely and the introduction of new technologies are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the smart driving sector [70][80]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Transformation and Financial Analysis - The company has shifted from a motorcycle-centric business to a focus on smart vehicles, with significant investments in AI technology and strategic partnerships [12][15]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 7.04 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.64 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.8% [1]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly, from 40 million yuan in 2024 to 160 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [1]. 2. Business Segments Performance - The motorcycle business remains stable, with a focus on high-displacement models and a gradual recovery in revenue and profitability [43][44]. - The automotive segment, particularly through the joint venture with Geely, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected 59.96% share of total revenue by 2024 [53][54]. - The technology segment is expanding, with a focus on AI-driven solutions and smart driving technologies, aiming to establish a comprehensive ecosystem [70][80]. 3. Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - The company has formed a robust partnership with Geely and other tech firms, enhancing its capabilities in AI and smart driving [70][80]. - The introduction of the "千里浩瀚" smart driving solution is expected to position the company as a key player in the autonomous driving market [89]. - The company plans to leverage its partnerships to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach, particularly in the smart mobility sector [70][80].

Core Insights - The article highlights the launch of G-ASD, a new advanced driving assistance brand developed by Qianli Zhijia and Geely, which aims to cover driving capabilities from L2 to L4 levels, marking a significant step in the smart driving market [1][11]. Group 1: Technology and Innovation - Qianli Zhijia emphasizes a "high model content" approach, which refers to the proportion of AI-driven decision-making in the driving system, aiming for a more flexible and safer system compared to traditional methods that rely heavily on manual rules and high-precision maps [3][5]. - The company has integrated advanced AI technologies, including multimodal base models and reinforcement learning, into its G-ASD system, which is designed to enhance the overall driving experience and safety [3][9]. - Qianli Zhijia's system is built on a foundation of over 25 million real driving video segments, allowing for efficient data feedback and training of AI models to understand complex real-world scenarios [6][9]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - G-ASD has already been deployed in over 300,000 vehicles, with expectations to exceed 1 million units in the current year, positioning it among the top tier of advanced driving solutions [11][12]. - The company aims to establish deep partnerships with leading automotive manufacturers rather than focusing solely on customer quantity, which is seen as a strategy to solidify its market position [12]. - Qianli Zhijia's collaboration with major players like Geely and Mercedes-Benz is indicative of its strategy to create a robust ecosystem and enhance its competitive edge in the global market [12][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant trends in the integration of cabin and driving experiences, aiming to create a seamless user experience by 2026 [13]. - The potential growth of the Robotaxi market is also highlighted, with expectations for explosive growth in the coming years, particularly in international markets [13]. - The competition in the smart driving sector will increasingly revolve around the integration of big data, large models, and large-scale engineering capabilities, with Qianli Zhijia positioning itself as a leader in this domain [14].