美国经济生产率激增，驱动因素却是“未解之谜”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the surprising efficiency of the U.S. economy in producing goods and services, providing a buffer for policymakers while raising questions about the underlying drivers of this productivity surge [2][4]. - Morgan Stanley reported a significant increase in non-farm productivity, with an annualized growth rate of 4.9% in Q3, marking a substantial rise from the average of 1.9% over the previous four quarters [2]. - The report suggests that the current productivity increase is largely cyclical, and the true drivers behind this acceleration remain a mystery [2]. Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. has been characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," with net job additions nearly at zero over the past five months, averaging only 44,000 new jobs per month, the lowest since 2020 [5]. - Despite reduced hiring, productivity has surged, supported by wealthier households maintaining demand, with consumer spending unexpectedly rising by 3.5% in Q3, primarily driven by service consumption [5]. - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, with high-income households (earning over $150,000) accounting for 43% of new car purchases, up from 30% five years ago, while lower-income households (earning under $75,000) saw their share drop from 35% to 25% [5]. Group 3 - The rise of artificial intelligence is often seen as a potential factor for productivity improvement, but the report emphasizes cyclical factors instead, indicating that companies are not widely replacing human labor with AI but are correcting previous overhiring [6]. - The surge in productivity has direct implications for monetary policy, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with revised predictions pushing the expected rate cuts to June and September [6]. - The report concludes that as long as the unemployment rate remains stable, the Federal Reserve can accept a slowdown in job growth [6].