JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 华尔街见闻·2026-01-20 11:17Core Viewpoint - The current market turmoil is expected to downgrade into a "negotiated arrangement" rather than escalate into a full-blown crisis, as interpreted by JPMorgan's international market intelligence team [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The EU's response to potential retaliatory tariffs and the use of anti-coercion tools is seen more as a strategic posture rather than a genuine threat [2]. - JPMorgan analyst Federico Manicardi believes the situation is not fundamentally difficult to resolve, with potential solutions emerging during the World Economic Forum (WEF) [3]. - Despite the volatility caused by "Trumpism," JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook on the market, indicating that a moderate single-digit market decline would be unexpected [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - The threats surrounding Greenland have caused market fluctuations, but JPMorgan remains cautiously optimistic [6]. - Manicardi elaborates that the most likely outcome is a "negotiated arrangement" that expands U.S. security and economic presence in Greenland while allowing Denmark to retain sovereignty [8]. - The possibility of "selling" Greenland is deemed low, as the U.S. can achieve its strategic goals without formal territorial control, and any invasion scenario is considered a very low-probability tail risk [8]. Group 3: Key Catalysts - Key catalysts for investors include Trump's speech scheduled for January 21 at the WEF, which may focus on potential candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair and affordability issues [8]. - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could impact market sentiment [8]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Outlook - JPMorgan observes a strong start to the year, with industries and regions leading, as investors anticipate an economic reboot by 2026 [9].