Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 点拾投资·2026-01-20 11:01Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal moment for global asset allocation among Chinese households, with a significant increase in the scale of FOF products and growing interest in global assets like US stocks and gold [1]. Group 1: Changes in Asset Allocation Paradigms - Traditional stock-bond allocation frameworks are no longer sufficient to meet current financial needs, as stocks exhibit high volatility and low win rates, while bond yields are too low [3][4]. - From 2024, more FOF clients are seeking higher win-rate global asset allocation combinations, with a focus on assets like the Nasdaq and gold ETFs, which have historically shown higher success rates [3][4]. - Emerging markets such as India and Vietnam are being explored for their potential, as they replicate the urbanization and industrialization logic seen in China's past [3][4]. Group 2: Market Insights and Historical Context - The performance of "old blue-chip stocks" in China, which have seen stagnant profit growth but high dividend yields, mirrors the current growth stocks in emerging markets like India and Vietnam [4]. - Japan's experience during its low-interest era, where institutional investors significantly increased global asset allocations, serves as a reference point for current trends [15]. Group 3: Evolving Research and Strategy Frameworks - The shift from traditional top-down strategies to a more nuanced global asset allocation approach reflects the changing landscape of wealth management, with a focus on integrating various asset classes [9][11]. - The development of a comprehensive high-frequency data system and the need for more granular industry analysis highlight the evolution of investment strategies [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook on Key Assets - Gold is expected to gain importance as a safe-haven asset, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and the weakening of dollar credibility, with predictions of significant price increases [16]. - The long-term outlook for US stocks remains positive, driven by substantial capital expenditures in the tech sector, particularly in AI, which is anticipated to yield profitable returns [17][18]. Group 5: Role of AI in Investment Strategies - AI is transforming investment research by enhancing efficiency and allowing for more objective analysis, thus reducing emotional biases in decision-making [20]. - The integration of AI into investment frameworks is expected to streamline processes and improve the accuracy of asset allocation strategies [20]. Group 6: Organizational Changes and Research Integration - The restructuring of the research team under the leadership of a chief economist aims to enhance collaboration across various sectors, facilitating a more integrated approach to asset allocation [21].