存储芯片，将缺货到2028

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is entering a long-term upcycle in the memory market, with supply shortages for DRAM and NAND expected to last at least until 2028, driven by demand from artificial intelligence workloads [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Historical trends show that memory suppliers have oscillated between oversupply and undersupply, but the current demand surge, particularly from AI, is reshaping this cycle [1]. - Micron Technology's revenue and profit trends illustrate the traditional cycle of oversupply and undersupply, with significant demand spikes observed from 2016 to 2018, followed by downturns in 2019 and 2020, and subsequent recoveries in 2021 and 2022 [3]. - Micron forecasts that the ongoing industry demand combined with supply constraints will lead to a tight market situation that could persist beyond 2026, indicating a potential upcycle lasting at least three years [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Demand - The primary driver of this trend is the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in GPUs used for AI training and inference, with Micron predicting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40% for the HBM market, growing from about $35 billion in 2025 to around $100 billion by 2028 [3][5]. - Demand for NAND is expected to follow the growth of HBM, suggesting that the current upcycle may extend from 2024 to 2028 [5]. Group 3: Pricing and Supply Dynamics - The global memory market is experiencing a structural crisis as manufacturers reallocate wafer capacity from DRAM to HBM for AI applications, resulting in a 171% year-over-year increase in DRAM prices, with DDR5 spot prices having doubled since September 2025 [5]. - Prices for memory may remain elevated until 2027-2028, with normalization only possible once new manufacturing facilities reach mass production [5]. - Industry analysis from IDC suggests a semiconductor supercycle, with long-term revenue growth expected to achieve double-digit compound annual growth rates from 2024 to 2028 [5]. Group 4: Industry Responses - Companies are beginning to implement strategies to cope with higher NAND flash costs and longer delivery times, such as VAST's flash recycling solutions and VDURA's emphasis on tiered storage to reduce reliance on solid-state drives [5][6]. - Hybrid flash and disk storage suppliers are expected to convey similar messages, while data management vendors will promote techniques to migrate non-critical data from SSDs and apply data reduction technologies [6].