Netflix正在回归“现实”

Core Viewpoint - Despite achieving notable revenue growth, Netflix's stock is declining, indicating a potential overvaluation and a return to more realistic valuations rather than severe business issues [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance and Valuation - The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is seen as a corrective measure for Netflix's business model, addressing long-standing deficiencies [1]. - Analysts believe that the market has long overestimated Netflix's value, expecting substantial cash flow from its independent operations, which has not materialized [2]. - Current stock prices imply that Netflix must achieve over 30% annual growth in cash flow and earnings to justify its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is unlikely based on recent earnings reports [4]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for Netflix show continued growth in the range of 12% to 17% year-over-year, but this growth is insufficient to support the current high P/E ratio [5]. - The company is beginning to generate free cash flow, making the all-cash acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery a reasonable proposal, as it targets growth potential in newly cash-generating segments [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market's reaction to Netflix's stock decline suggests a return to reality, with analysts predicting that the stock could have about 50% more downside before reaching a more sustainable valuation [8]. - There is a concern that the combined entity may face a high leverage ratio, leading to a discounted valuation until debt is partially repaid [9]. - The management's decision to allow Warner Bros. Discovery's operations to run independently is viewed as a strategic move to increase the chances of a successful merger [10].