高盛观点 | 2026年全球股市展望

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs research indicates that despite a potentially lower stock market increase in 2026 compared to 2025, a global bull market is expected to continue, supported by earnings and economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The global economy is anticipated to expand across all regions in 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to provide further moderate easing [1]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach a target price of 7,600, with an expected earnings growth of 12% [1]. - The STOXX 600 index is expected to rise to 625, with a 5% earnings growth [1]. - The TOPIX index is forecasted to reach 3,600, also with a 12% earnings growth [1]. - The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) is projected to increase to 825, with a significant earnings growth of 19% [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Diversification was a key theme in 2025 and is expected to continue into 2026, expanding across growth and value factors as well as various industries [1][2]. - The 12-month global forecast predicts a 9% increase in stock prices, with an 11% return rate in USD, primarily driven by earnings [5]. - Investors are encouraged to seek broad regional exposure, including emerging markets, and to combine growth and value stocks while focusing on various sectors [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market experienced a near 20% adjustment from mid-February to April 2025, followed by a rebound, leading to historically high valuations across all regions [2]. - The current market is in an optimistic phase, which typically accompanies rising valuations, indicating potential upside risks to core predictions [6]. - The valuation gap between U.S. stocks and other regions has narrowed, suggesting a more balanced improvement in earnings outside the U.S. [7]. Group 4: Technology Sector Insights - Concerns about a bubble in AI stocks are addressed, with the assertion that the dominance of the tech sector is not solely due to AI but has been supported by strong earnings growth since the financial crisis [8]. - The valuation of the largest five companies in the S&P 500 is not as extreme as during previous bubbles, such as the 2000 tech bubble peak [8].