高盛观点｜2026年并购市场展望

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the global M&A landscape in 2026 will be characterized by strategic restructuring and scaling, driven by significant public market funds, private capital, and the profound impact of AI on the macro environment [1][2]. Group 1: Drivers of M&A Activity in the Asia-Pacific Region - A wave of corporate governance reforms is enhancing transparency and accountability, creating more attractive opportunities for local and international buyers, sellers, and investors [4]. - The surge in technological innovation and strategic expansion is fostering a vibrant environment for consolidation and transformation in key industries across the Asia-Pacific, leading to more mega-deals [5]. - Financial investment institutions are increasingly active in M&A activities in the Asia-Pacific region, driven by a growing focus on high-value growth opportunities and capital deployment needs [6]. Group 2: Global Trends Influencing M&A - The AI-driven innovation supercycle is broadening the scope for cross-industry strategic mergers and acquisitions, as AI disrupts all sectors and increases demand for digital infrastructure, energy, semiconductors, and hardware optimization [7]. - Rising tariffs and a more fragmented global trade environment are prompting companies to rethink their growth strategies and geographic footprints, with cross-border M&A transactions in the Asia-Pacific becoming particularly active [8]. - The private market is becoming a central hub for M&A transactions, with an increase in privatization transactions, which saw a 31% year-on-year growth in global transaction value, allowing financial investment institutions to recapitalize, restructure, and strategically reshape private companies [9]. Group 3: Complex Transactions and Investor Activism - The complexity of transactions is increasing due to changing financial conditions, regulatory requirements, and business priorities, necessitating more customized and flexible capital solutions to support large-scale capital expenditures and acquisitions [10]. - The current environment is favorable for activist investors, with the number of related activities steadily rising, driven primarily by M&A-related demands, pushing companies towards clearer transformation and strategic direction [12]. - Fundamental drivers of M&A include the financing conditions in public and private markets, the recovery of the IPO market, and the willingness and capability to pursue strategic deals, all of which are expected to play a role in 2026 [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the market approaches 2026, it is poised for a new wave of strategic transformation, with companies focusing on capability-driven acquisitions to reshape their business portfolios and drive long-term growth [14].