特斯拉：2026年晴空万里，但2027年的风暴可能腰斩估值

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has transformed from a struggling electric vehicle startup in 2015 to a major player in the S&P 500 with a market capitalization of $1.39 trillion, despite initial skepticism about its valuation [1] Group 1: Investment Perspective - Tesla's investment outlook is complex, requiring an evaluation of its various segments: automotive, energy, and future growth areas like Full Self-Driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and Optimus [2] - Analysts initially expected to be bearish on Tesla due to limited contributions from FSD and Robotaxi, but found that short- and medium-term growth targets appear achievable [2] - Despite a valuation around $435, analysts believe there is significant potential for Tesla to meet or exceed market expectations in the upcoming quarters [2][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive sales for Q3 2025 were $20.359 billion, with total revenues from sales and services reaching $27.532 billion, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year growth [7][8] - The energy business has become a significant growth driver, with sales of $3.281 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 43.5% year-over-year increase [8][10] - The traditional automotive business, including FSD, generated $24.7 billion in revenue, accounting for 87.8% of total revenue, despite facing cyclical headwinds [8][10] Group 3: Future Growth Segments - Future business segments like Robotaxi and Optimus are still in early monetization stages and have not yet contributed to Tesla's sales [9] - Analysts project a valuation of $175 billion for Robotaxi and $522.5 billion for Optimus, indicating a significant portion of Tesla's market value is based on unproven future products [11][12] Group 4: Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Outlook - Short-term expectations for Q4 2025 are set at $24.75 billion in revenue, with analysts anticipating a slight beat against conservative estimates [15][18] - Medium-term projections for 2026 estimate revenues of $107.4 billion, driven by growth in energy and FSD, while traditional automotive sales need to stabilize [22][23] - Long-term growth expectations hinge on the successful rollout of Robotaxi and Optimus, with significant revenue increases required to meet future targets [24][25] Group 5: Analyst Sentiment - Analysts currently hold a "hold" rating on Tesla, leaning bullish in the short term due to potentially low expectations for upcoming earnings [4][27] - The outlook becomes increasingly uncertain as the timeline extends, with the need for substantial growth from new technologies to justify current valuations [26][27]