微软：云业务利润率是即将到来的第二财季财报的 “绊脚索”

Core Viewpoint - Analysts have downgraded Microsoft (MSFT) to "Hold" ahead of the Q2 FY2026 earnings report due to external pressures affecting the tech sector and concerns over cloud business margins [2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Downgrade Reasons - The downgrade is primarily driven by external pressures impacting the tech sector, particularly the software infrastructure industry, which has seen significant selling since October 2022 [3]. - Analysts express concerns over the declining gross margin for cloud services, which is expected to drop from 68% in the previous quarter to 66% in Q2 FY2026, indicating potential further downside risks [3][28]. - Increased capital expenditures (CapEx) are also a concern, as analysts believe that rising costs will negatively impact profit margins, making it unwise to buy before the earnings report [3][34]. Group 2: Market Performance and Expectations - Despite a 20% drop in Microsoft's stock since the last earnings report, analysts note that revenue forecasts have remained stable, indicating that the fundamentals of the company have not significantly changed [5][24]. - The technology sector has been underperforming, with application software and infrastructure software being the worst-performing industries [18][24]. - Analysts are closely monitoring key indicators such as profit margins and capital expenditures, particularly the guidance for cloud business margins in the upcoming earnings report [27][34]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The expected gross margin for Microsoft's cloud business is projected to decline, with historical margins showing a consistent downward trend [28][29]. - Capital expenditures for Q1 FY2026 were reported at $34.9 billion, with a significant portion attributed to short-term assets like GPUs and CPUs [31]. - Microsoft's forward P/E ratio stands at 28, making it one of the cheaper options among major tech companies, second only to Meta [33].