晶圆代工，正在重构

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a significant capacity restructuring driven by the AI boom, affecting both advanced and mature processes, particularly the 8-inch wafer production [1][14]. Group 1: 8-Inch Wafer Production - Many chip design companies are facing challenges in securing capacity at wafer fabs, particularly for mature processes, due to increased demand driven by AI applications [1]. - TSMC and Samsung are both planning to shut down some of their 8-inch wafer fabs, with TSMC expected to stop production at its 8-inch Fab 5 by the end of 2027 [2]. - Samsung's S7 plant will also be closed in the second half of 2026, reducing its monthly capacity by approximately 50,000 wafers [3]. Group 2: Economic Considerations - The economic viability of 8-inch production is declining as 12-inch wafers can produce more dies at lower costs, making 8-inch production less profitable [4]. - The migration of key products like CMOS image sensors and display drivers to 12-inch platforms is contributing to the reduced utilization of 8-inch fabs [4]. Group 3: AI Impact and Market Dynamics - The AI-driven demand for power management ICs (PMICs) and power devices is causing a structural increase in demand, which, combined with supply-side reductions, is leading to a supply-demand imbalance for 8-inch wafers [5]. - As TSMC and Samsung reduce their 8-inch production, global supply is expected to decrease by approximately 2.4% in 2026, with average utilization rates rising from 75-80% in 2025 to 85-90% [5]. Group 4: Transition to 12-Inch Production - The transition to 12-inch production is becoming irreversible, with TI's Sherman facility marking a significant milestone in this trend [6]. - GlobalWafers is also expanding its 12-inch wafer production, indicating strong customer demand and confidence in long-term growth [7]. Group 5: Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - The reduction of 8-inch capacity by major players opens a valuable window for Chinese wafer fabs to capture market share and improve their bargaining power [11]. - Chinese manufacturers like Huahong and SMIC are expected to benefit from the reallocation of 8-inch orders, as they maintain high utilization rates [11]. Group 6: Strategic Moves and Future Outlook - The sale of Powerchip's P5 factory to Micron illustrates a strategic shift among second-tier manufacturers to prioritize cash flow and reduce asset burdens [8]. - Micron's acquisition aims to secure supply chain positioning for future DRAM production, highlighting the competitive landscape's evolution [9][10]. - The restructuring presents both challenges and opportunities, with the need for Chinese manufacturers to transition effectively to 12-inch production to maintain competitiveness [12][13].