Marvell，有戏吗？

Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology's stock performance has lagged behind the broader semiconductor market during the AI boom, but this may change as the focus shifts towards inference and energy efficiency, areas where Marvell excels [1][2]. Group 1: AI Transition - The AI industry is expected to transition from "brute-force training" to Agentic AI and inference by 2026, which requires lower latency and significantly higher energy efficiency compared to training [1]. - Marvell's custom XPU (AI accelerator) is designed for these specific workloads, optimizing for "tokens per watt," making it crucial for cloud giants aiming to scale services to billions of users [2]. Group 2: Interconnect Innovations - A critical infrastructure change by 2026 is the limitation of copper interconnects, which face challenges in heat, power consumption, and signal degradation as AI data centers expand [2]. - Marvell is investing heavily in Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) and has acquired Celestial AI for $3.25 billion to integrate optical interconnects directly into chip packaging, addressing data transfer bottlenecks without excessive power and heat [2][3]. Group 3: Customer Diversification - Marvell has historically been criticized for its reliance on Amazon Web Services (AWS), which increased earnings volatility and limited market recognition of its AI potential [3]. - The company is diversifying its customer base, having secured custom chip design orders from three of the four major U.S. cloud providers, with new projects expected to accelerate in 2026 [3][4]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - Marvell's trading valuation is significantly lower than peers, with an expected revenue growth of 42% in 2026 and 22% in 2027, despite a current operating margin of about 15% [4]. - The rationale for a re-rating lies in improving this margin structure, as increasing data center revenue and customer diversification could transform Marvell from a cyclical component supplier to a structural AI infrastructure platform [4].