海外高频 | 特朗普表态暂缓关税，日央行1月按兵不动（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Key Points - The article discusses the recent market movements, including a decline in major stock indices and a rise in gold and silver prices, following President Trump's announcement to delay tariffs on Europe [2][124] - The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy but revised its inflation and GDP growth forecasts upward for 2026, indicating a stable core inflation despite a drop in the overall CPI [98][99] - The article highlights the performance of various asset classes, noting that U.S. stocks experienced a slight decline while emerging market indices showed gains [3][8] - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance increased significantly, and net issuance of U.S. debt showed fluctuations, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [67] - The article emphasizes the potential for continued U.S. fiscal deficits and the implications of Trump's economic policies on market stability and inflation expectations [120][122] Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, while emerging market indices mostly rose, with Brazil's IBOVESPA up 8.5% [2][3] - Gold prices surged by 7.5% to $4936.0 per ounce, and silver prices increased by 15.4% to $102.9 per ounce, reflecting a flight to safety amid market volatility [2][49] - The dollar index fell by 1.9% to 97.5, while the offshore yuan strengthened to 6.94 against the dollar [2][32] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. November PCE consumption increased by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, indicating robust holiday season spending [92] - The Bank of Japan's core CPI forecast for 2026 was revised up to 1.9%, while actual GDP growth was adjusted to 1.0%, suggesting a more optimistic economic outlook [98] - Japan's December CPI showed a year-on-year decline to 2.1%, below market expectations, but core inflation remained strong at 2.9% [99] Group 3: U.S. Fiscal Policy - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. as of January 9, 2026, was $55.5 billion, down from $93.8 billion the previous year, with total expenditures and tax revenues also reflecting changes [73][80] - Trump's recent statements at the World Economic Forum indicated a focus on economic growth and a delay in tariff implementation, which may alleviate some market concerns [83][84] - The article notes that the political dynamics surrounding U.S. fiscal policy may lead to continued deficits, with potential increases in defense and infrastructure spending [120][122]