Core Viewpoint - The snack wholesale industry has entered its 3.0 phase, transitioning from "scale racing" to "quality and efficiency cultivation" [1] Industry Overview - The snack wholesale industry model is highly efficient and continues to expand, with an estimated 55,000 to 60,000 stores by the end of 2025, projecting a retail sales exceeding 250 billion yuan [4][7] - The industry has evolved through three phases: - Phase 1.0 (explosive growth) characterized by regional fragmentation - Phase 2.0 (competitive consolidation) from 2022 to 2024, where leading brands accelerated market consolidation - Phase 3.0 (establishment of a dual-strong pattern) focusing on optimizing store operations and enhancing supply chain efficiency [4][21] Market Dynamics - The snack wholesale channel's market share is steadily increasing, with GMV rising from 7.3 billion yuan in 2019 to an estimated 129.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% [9] - The contribution of the snack wholesale channel to the overall snack and beverage retail market is projected to reach 3.21% by 2024, up from 0.23% in 2019 [9] Store Expansion and Distribution - The expansion of snack wholesale stores is primarily focused on lower-tier cities, which have become the core areas for growth, contributing 62% of GMV from 2019 to 2024 [10] - By the end of 2025, major brands like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group are expected to have over 22,000 and 19,000 stores respectively [4][21] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the snack wholesale industry is becoming clearer, with leading brands focusing on quality and efficiency improvements as subsidies decrease [20][24] - The industry is witnessing significant mergers and acquisitions, such as the strategic merger between "Mingming Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yiming" in November 2023 [22][23] Product and Supply Chain Innovations - Brands are actively expanding their product categories, including introducing private label products to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [5][27] - The introduction of self-owned brands aims to control the entire profit chain from production to sales, improving gross margins [27][28] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a shift towards discount supermarket models, with brands exploring dual business models of snack wholesale and discount supermarkets to reduce costs through shared logistics and procurement [25][26] - The potential for long-term store expansion is estimated at 80,000 to 100,000 stores nationwide, based on existing market densities and purchasing power [17][18]
中金 | 零食量贩3.0时代：从“规模竞速”到“质效深耕”