“金饭碗”端不住了！科思股份：业绩预降8成，实控人低位仍减持

Core Viewpoint - The sunscreen market is experiencing a slowdown in demand, leading to significant challenges for companies like Kosi Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kosi Co., Ltd. has issued a shocking profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit of only 90 million to 120 million yuan, representing a decline of 78.7% to 84.0% compared to 2024 [9] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.12 billion yuan, but this was accompanied by a sharp decline in profitability [9] - The operating income for the latest reporting period was approximately 721 million yuan, down 48.67% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in product sales and prices [10] - The gross profit margin has plummeted from 48.8% in 2023 to 29.6% in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a loss of nearly 20 percentage points in less than two years [12][13] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was only 160 million yuan, a nearly 79% decrease compared to the same period last year [15] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Kosi Co., Ltd. primarily serves high-profile clients in the cosmetics industry, including major international brands, which has historically provided a stable revenue stream [16] - The company has benefited from a global increase in sunscreen consumption, with an average annual growth rate of about 5.7%, and a shift of the supply chain to China [18] - However, over 80% of Kosi's revenue comes from overseas markets, making it vulnerable to demand fluctuations as clients begin to reduce inventory [19] - The average gross margin for cosmetic active ingredients, particularly sunscreen agents, dropped dramatically from 53.1% in 2023 to 35.3% in the first half of 2025 [21] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Kosi Co., Ltd. has operated in a relatively competition-free environment within the chemical sector, with few direct competitors [23] - The primary threat to Kosi is not from competitors but from cyclical market conditions, as the supply-demand relationship has reversed, leading to price declines in sunscreen products [24] Group 4: Strategic Moves - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company's actual controller has reduced his stake in the company, selling 9.45 million shares at an average price of 11.26 yuan per share [25][26] - Kosi Co., Ltd. continues to pursue expansion projects, including a significant project in Malaysia aimed at producing 10,000 tons of sunscreen products annually, indicating a desire to capture global market share [27][28] - The company is also implementing stock incentive plans to motivate performance, although achieving turnaround in the current environment remains uncertain [31]