摩根士丹利2026年十大预测

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's 2026 market outlook highlights four major themes: AI technology diffusion, future energy, a multipolar world, and social change, presenting ten key predictions for investors to understand the evolving market landscape driven by technology [1] Group 1: AI Technology and Market Dynamics - The development of global AI technology is expected to show a bifurcated pattern, with the U.S. leading in advanced models while other regions lag behind, creating a "two worlds" scenario in AI development [2] - There will be an exponential growth in computing power demand driven by the proliferation of AI applications, which will outpace supply growth, fundamentally changing the economics of data centers [3] Group 2: Policy and Geopolitical Implications - The Trump administration is predicted to implement stronger policies than expected, focusing on securing domestic supplies of critical minerals, supporting manufacturing return, increasing military spending, and lowering consumer costs [4] - There will be increasing pressure for AI technology transfer and a push for national self-sufficiency, affecting trade dynamics and leading countries to enhance their domestic AI capabilities [5] Group 3: Energy and Infrastructure - Rising global energy costs will trigger a backlash against data center growth, prompting the introduction of low-cost energy support policies and encouraging data centers to adopt off-grid power strategies [6] - Major AI companies will accelerate the integration of energy infrastructure to secure reliable and cost-effective energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency through AI [7] Group 4: Manufacturing and Investment Trends - China is expected to increase its share in the global manufacturing market in key tech-intensive sectors, while the U.S. manufacturing landscape will shift towards domestic production as technology diffusion diminishes the low-cost labor advantage [8] - Latin America is entering a new investment cycle driven by policy shifts, geopolitical changes, and peak interest rates, with this bull market being investment-led rather than consumption-driven [9] Group 5: Workforce and Economic Transformation - Companies and governments will initiate extensive retraining programs to address employment changes driven by AI, responding to the political sensitivity surrounding job displacement caused by AI applications [10] - Transformative AI is anticipated to reshape the economy and asset valuations, with early signs of price declines across multiple sectors by the second half of 2026, leading to increased wage inequality and upward pressure on capital expenditures and interest rates [11][12]