苹果财报前瞻：AI 与中国市场成关键看点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming earnings report of Apple (AAPL) for Q1 FY2026, highlighting high expectations from Wall Street despite the company's recent underperformance. Analysts anticipate significant revenue growth driven by strong holiday sales, the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, and double-digit growth in services [3][4]. Revenue Expectations - Analysts predict Apple will report record quarterly revenue of approximately $138.5 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of about 10%-12%, surpassing the previous record of $124.3 billion set in Q1 FY2025 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $2.67, an 11% increase from $2.40 in the same quarter last year [4]. - Investors expect gross margins to stabilize in the range of 47%-48%, with close attention on potential impacts from rising memory costs and tariff policies [4]. Business Segment Performance - The iPhone segment remains Apple's core profit engine, with expected revenue growth exceeding 12%, reaching between $78 billion and $80 billion [8]. - The anticipated "super upgrade cycle" heavily relies on the performance of the iPhone 17, with early data indicating strong demand for the Pro models [9]. - The services segment, including App Store, iCloud, and Apple TV+, is projected to generate around $30 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 14% [9]. AI Strategy and Market Dynamics - Apple's AI strategy is seen as a significant variable in the earnings report, with market focus on user acceptance of AI features and the company's plans for AI commercialization [11]. - The company faces external challenges, including global memory shortages, antitrust litigation from the U.S. Department of Justice, and complex EU regulatory policies [12]. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The earnings report is viewed as a critical test for the sustainability of the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle and Apple's growth in the AI era [14]. - Positive scenarios could see Apple’s stock rebound to the $270-$288 range, while negative outcomes, such as underperformance in iPhone revenue, could lead to a drop below the $206-$210 support level [12].