周四大跌10%！微软财报数据亮眼，市场预期差在哪？

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported a significant capital expenditure of $37.5 billion in a single quarter, which exceeded market expectations, but this did not lead to a notable acceleration in cloud business growth. The company is prioritizing the allocation of new computing power to self-developed AI products and internal research rather than solely focusing on revenue-generating Azure cloud services, leading to market concerns about short-term capital efficiency and return visibility [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q2 of FY2026, Microsoft achieved revenue of $81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, surpassing market expectations by 1%. Non-GAAP EPS was $4.41, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 5%. Azure cloud business grew by 38% at constant currency, slightly above Wall Street's forecast of 37% [3][5]. Capital Expenditure Concerns - Investors expressed concerns over Microsoft's rising capital expenditures, which reached $37.5 billion in the quarter, 9% higher than market expectations. The market anticipated that such a substantial investment would lead to a significant acceleration in Azure's growth rate, which did not materialize immediately [6][7]. Strategic Allocation of Resources - Goldman Sachs noted that Microsoft's strategy involves sacrificing short-term Azure revenue growth to prioritize computing power for first-party applications (like Copilot) and internal R&D projects. This strategic choice is expected to drive more meaningful AI positioning and better returns in the medium term [6][7]. Azure Capacity Constraints - Microsoft management indicated that Azure is currently facing capacity limitations rather than a lack of demand. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the guidance for Azure growth of 37%-38% in Q3 should be viewed as a reflection of capacity allocation rather than pure demand. If capacity had not been directed towards first-party applications and internal R&D, Azure's revenue growth rate could have exceeded 40% [8]. Copilot Commercialization - The commercialization path for Copilot is becoming clearer, with adoption and usage accelerating. The number of paid seats for M365 Copilot increased by 160% year-on-year, reaching 15 million. Goldman Sachs believes that Copilot will have a better customer lifetime value to customer acquisition cost ratio compared to Azure, due to its higher gross margins and customer stickiness [9]. Valuation Adjustments - Based on the limited visibility regarding the timeline for capital expenditures to translate into revenue growth, Goldman Sachs adjusted Microsoft's valuation model, lowering the target P/E ratio from 32x to 28x, resulting in a target price reduction to $600. Key downside risks include lower-than-expected revenue contributions from the OpenAI partnership, prolonged ramp-up times for internal chip production, and potential negative impacts from significant leadership changes [10].