美光为何持续上涨？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market is undergoing a fundamental transformation, particularly in the storage chip sector, with a permanent shift in manufacturing capacity towards AI core products, making Micron a bottleneck supplier in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Transformation - The current storage market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, as the so-called "overcapacity" is actually a permanent transfer of capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI accelerators [3]. - The shortage of storage chips is expected to last until at least 2027, with major cloud service providers prioritizing securing supply over negotiating lower prices [3]. - The shortage affects not only flagship AI GPUs but also smartphones, enterprise servers, and consumer storage products, indicating a significant shift in the supply chain [3]. Group 2: High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Impact - HBM is now a core variable for investors, with demand for storage chips growing exponentially due to new AI accelerators, outpacing traditional DRAM market growth [4]. - The growth rate of HBM is expected to allow suppliers to escape the commodity pricing model, presenting a unique investment opportunity for Micron [4]. - Micron's potential profit growth is substantial, even without dominating the HBM market, as it can achieve significant margins by capturing a market share aligned with its overall DRAM position [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Micron's revenue from cloud memory has nearly doubled year-over-year, with a gross margin of 66% and an operating margin of 55% in the latest quarter [6]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational leverage, with significant profit margin improvements in its cloud storage segment, indicating it has gained true pricing power [5][6]. - Free cash flow is under pressure but is being reinvested into business expansion, reflecting a strategic choice rather than a sign of poor profitability [7]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Micron's position in the HBM market is more about long-term participation than current rankings, with a diversified customer base that reduces reliance on single clients [9]. - The company's production ramp-up for new HBM products is methodical, allowing it to capture market share without needing to make price concessions [9]. - Micron's high capital expenditures are viewed as a sign of confidence in the industry's future, with investments tied to signed demand contracts rather than speculative judgments [13]. Group 5: Future Valuation - The market undervalues Micron based on its future earnings potential, with a forward non-GAAP P/E ratio of only 13 and expected triple-digit growth in earnings per share [11]. - The company's structural advantages position it as a proactive supplier rather than a passive participant in the market, marking a significant shift in its profitability and operational strategy [15].