中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、量化及ESG

Strategy - Trump's recent actions and statements have led to significant market volatility, with the U.S. experiencing a "triple hit" in stocks, bonds, and currencies [3] - Understanding the underlying objectives of Trump's policies is crucial, as some aggressive measures may lead to severe market fluctuations while others may have counterproductive effects [3] Macroeconomy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its January meeting, aligning with market expectations, while one member voted against this decision, possibly due to aspirations for the Fed chair position [6] - The Fed's statement indicated that the unemployment rate is stabilizing, and Powell suggested that monetary policy is currently in an appropriate position, raising the threshold for future rate cuts [6] - It is anticipated that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2026, with the first cut potentially delayed until the second quarter, as the core issue in the U.S. economy is income distribution imbalance rather than insufficient growth [6] Macroeconomy - The concept of "deposit migration" highlights the importance of both new and exiting funds in determining net inflows, which are closely related to stock prices and reflect residents' willingness to invest [8] - Residents' willingness to invest correlates positively with income expectations, and factors such as employment and service inflation align with these expectations [8] - The expected net inflow of funds from residents in 2026 is projected to be similar to the previous year, with high-net-worth individuals and insurance funds providing some independent support to the stock market, although this support may diminish in 2026 [8] Quantitative & ESG - Since 2025, the market has entered an upward cycle, but fluctuations have occurred; tracking implied volatility indicators has shown high sensitivity and accuracy in predicting weekly to monthly market movements [10] - The strategy implemented since April 2025 has yielded a 32% return, outperforming the CSI 1000 index, which achieved a 15% excess return [10]