仲裁利好下，爱美客也难“翻身”

Core Viewpoint - The recent arbitration decision allows REGEN, a subsidiary of Aimeike, to sell AestheFill products in mainland China, but this is not a final ruling, and the ongoing dispute over distribution rights remains uncertain [2][8][20]. Group 1: Arbitration and Market Impact - Aimeike's subsidiary REGEN received a procedural decision from the Shenzhen International Arbitration Court, lifting a temporary measure that previously restricted its sales of AestheFill products in mainland China [2][8]. - Since the initial temporary measure was imposed on September 10, 2025, Aimeike's stock price has dropped nearly 30% [3]. - The arbitration dispute began after Aimeike acquired 85% of REGEN for $190 million in March 2025, leading to REGEN unilaterally terminating its exclusive distribution agreement with Dato Medical [6][8]. Group 2: Business Performance - Aimeike has faced a decline in revenue and profit for four consecutive quarters, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenues of 663 million, 636 million, and 566 million yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 17.90%, 25.11%, and 21.27% respectively [11]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a weakened consumer confidence due to macroeconomic conditions and increased competition in the medical aesthetics industry [14][15]. - Aimeike's main revenue sources, solution and gel injection products, saw significant revenue drops, with total income from these products falling from 9.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.44 billion yuan in 2025 [15][16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The AestheFill product, despite its potential, is expected to contribute only around 300 million yuan in annual sales, which may not significantly offset the revenue decline from Aimeike's core products [17]. - The competitive landscape for botulinum toxin products is also challenging, with established players dominating the market, making it difficult for Aimeike to gain market share with newly approved products [18]. - Overall, Aimeike is likely to continue facing significant performance pressures into 2026, despite the short-term positive impact of the arbitration decision [19][20].